There may be wrong ways to build an NHL team, but there is no one right way to do so.
If the Blues were looking for teams to model their retool after, the NHL’s conference finals offered, well, contradictions.
Florida’s roster was almost entirely turned over after the arrival of Bill Zito, eschewing the draft-and-develop model in order to bet on undervalued assets. The Rangers, despite selecting in the top two twice recently, were staked by key free agent signing and trade acquisitions.
Edmonton was built around two MVPs drafted about a decade ago, a lethal power play and then filled in the gaps with role players. Dallas refused to tank and instead trusted perhaps the best amateur scouting staff in the league to set itself up with an extended window despite picking toward the end of the first round consistently.
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Four different franchises chose different paths. Now that it’s down to just two teams in the Stanley Cup Final, here are some things the Blues could take away from Florida or Edmonton, even if the lessons can seem inconsistent.
Florida Panthers
It’s possible to dump bad contracts: When Bill Zito took over as general manager of the Panthers in 2020, he inherited a mess of a salary cap structure. Mike Matheson had six years left on a deal worth $4.875 million annually. Brett Connolly had three years left at $3.5 million. Anton Stralman was being paid $5.5 million for two more seasons. Keith Yandle had three years left at $6.35 million.
In his first two offseasons in Florida, Zito got rid of all those contracts, whether through trades or buyouts. Now, it’s not exactly the same magnitude as the Blues’ logjam on defense, but Zito attached sweeteners when he needed, and bit the buyout bullet if he needed to do that.
In a different way, Zito also avoided the same type of franchise-killing contracts when he traded Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary for Matthew Tkachuk. Both Huberdeau and Weegar signed long-term deals with the Flames.
Forechecking and defending still matter: The Panthers won the Presidents’ Trophy two years ago with a high-flying offense centered around Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov. But they were swept by Tampa Bay in the second round when they scored just three goals in four games.
In the last two seasons under Paul Maurice, the Panthers committed themselves to becoming one of the best forechecking teams in the league, rivaled by maybe only Carolina. They are physical in the offensive zone. They create turnovers. They have chances around the net. That should sound familiar to Blues fans, and basically every one of the recent Cup winners.
On the other end, the Panthers ranked in the top-seven defensively in allowing shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, high-danger chances, expected goals and goals per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 in the regular season, according to Natural Stat Trick. That has continued in the playoffs.
The Panthers have a certain snarl to their game, bringing opponents into the fight consistently, and it seems to begin with their forecheck. The Blues, meanwhile, were a team that created much of their offense on the rush last season. When they did get to a forecheck, they were successful, but the forecheck itself was not consistent enough.
It’s possible to contend without a No. 1 defenseman: As good as the Panthers’ overall defense is, it’s a bit of a shock to look at their six players and not find a true “alpha dog.â€
Is it Aaron Ekblad, the former Norris Trophy vote-getter who no longer quarterbacks a power play unit and could be the second-best player on his own pairing? Is it Gustav Forsling, the waivers claim that has morphed into a top-end defensive specialist? There’s Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who are both known more for their offensive abilities. Likewise, there’s Niko Mikkola and Dmitry Kulikov know more for their defense.
They don’t have a true do-it-all defenseman like Vegas (Alex Pietrangelo), Colorado (Cale Makar), Tampa Bay (Victor Hedman) or ºüÀêÊÓƵ (Pietrangelo) all had. They’ve done it by committee.
In a perfect world, this might have been Doug Armstrong’s vision in constructing the Blues’ defensive corps. Rely on Torey Krug and Justin Faulk on the power play. Lean on Colton Parayko (and Mikkola?) to shoulder defensive responsibilities. Ask Nick Leddy to take on a little bit of everything. Obviously, it has not been as successful as Florida’s plan.
Take a lot of swings: The Panthers under Zito chase unvalued assets more than just about every other NHL team. They’ve made six waivers claims since the 2020 offseason. Forsling was a massive hit, but they also took chances on Noah Juulsen, Jonas Johansson, Josh Mahura, Casey Fitzgerald and Tobias Bjornfot.
In trades, they bought low on Montour, Sam Bennett and (to a much different degree) Sam Reinhart. They plucked Carter Verhaeghe out of Tampa. They turned Mason Marchment into a top-six forward. They tried to revitalize Olli Juolevi and even Nikita Gusev. The Panthers might not hit on every risk they take, but they take a bunch of them and have been rewarded for the wins.
Edmonton Oilers
A rebuild takes a long time: Connor McDavid was drafted in 2015. Leon Draisaitl was drafted in 2014. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was drafted in 2011. This is the Oilers’ first trip to the Final since those players arrived in Edmonton.
Even with two of the best players on the planet, it still took almost a decade to arrive at the spot with a chance to finally win a Stanley Cup. Sure, there has been mismanagement during that time, and it would be a lie to say that this is their first season of contention (went to the conference final in 2022, as well). But finding a path back from the top of the draft is difficult, long and still involves a bit of luck.
Special teams can mask a lot: According to Natural Stat Trick’s possession numbers, the Oilers were one of the league’s best teams in the regular season. They just didn’t have the goaltending to match their elite play-driving at 5 on 5.
Against Vancouver and Dallas, the 5 on 5 numbers still favored the Oilers, but to a much less degree than in the regular season. Instead, an impenetrable penalty kill thwarted opposing power plays — 28 straight kills! And their power play awoke late against the Stars to score four goals in the final two games of the series, singlehandedly winning Game 6 as Dallas dominated play. Special teams can’t always be counted on in the playoffs, but Edmonton has found a way to turn their power play and penalty kill into difference-makers.
Don’t sign depth to term: A quick look at Edmonton’s bottom-six reveals that … there might be an exodus this summer. Connor Brown, Sam Carrick, Warren Foegele, Sam Gagner, Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark and Corey Perry will all be unrestricted free agents in the offseason. Only Foegele is playing on a multi-year contract signed by the Oilers. Everyone else, well, they aren’t promised a future in Alberta.