Following frustration and flawed fundamentals and fan angst, they will, finally, return to first place.
Same can’t be said for the Cubs’ division rival in Ƶ.
Yes, the Cardinals seem headed for second place — a “silver” for a team with a couple potential Silver Sluggers but pitchers with silver slivers in their hair. Now, the silver lining is that the Cardinals could be good enough to snatch a wild-card spot. We’ll see.
But as the 2024 season begins Thursday in Los Angeles, and all the offseason and spring roster moves are complete, the reality is that the Cards did some good things to jump from 71 wins to, say, 86 wins — but not enough, I think, to stave off the Cubs.
Here in Ƶ, every season is a big season because the stakes are always high for a time-honored team with a fan base that exceeds three million in attendance annually. But 2024 is actually an even bigger season than your usual big season, if that's possible. They’re now past a decade since their last NL pennant. And last season was so abysmal, there is additional pressure to return to competitiveness and, of course, the postseason. Unfortunately for the fans, the latter isn’t a given.
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The good news, if anything, is that the Cards-Cubs rivalry should return to relevant baseball. Last year’s London Series was a jolly good time, and there have been a few thrilling games in recent seasons — but this is the first time in a while that a case can be made for both the Cards and the Cubs to win the Central Division.
And here’s thinking this will be a pretty fun season, in the sense that the Cards will at least be in the hunt for first place (instead of last year, when it was a dubious battle for last place). But I don’t see a one-season jump from 71 wins to 91 ... or 101 ... or anything that resembles the best of the recent decades’ dominance.
The Cardinals’ rotation of 30-somethings will eat innings. And that’s a great thing because it keeps the bullpen fresher and, inevitably, means the team is either winning or still in the game if the starter is still in the game by the sixth or seventh.
But there will be runs. Inevitably scored by both teams.
When you look at the Ƶ rotation, Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson seem destined for high ERAs. Last season, all three finished below the threshold of “average” in the stat called ERA+, which is respected and relevant because it’s adjusted based on ballparks in which a pitcher is playing. But the 2024 Cards hitters will mash as if they’re consistently facing, well, the Cards rotation.
This lineup — even without the injured Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson — has a beautiful blend. At the top, Brendan Donovan will get on base a bunch, be it by walks, hits or a being a hit batsman. Within the heart of the lineup are five — yes, five — Cardinals who I believe will hit 20 or more homers: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras and Jordan Walker, whose speed very well could make him just the seventh 20-20 player in franchise history. And of course, his fellow college-aged speedsters Masyn Winn and Victor Scott II will steal bases at a high clip (with the caveat of them needing to get on base in the first place).
Both the shortstop Winn and the center fielder Scott will enhance the Ƶ defense, which last season was offensive. The best Cardinals clubs seem to have multiple players in Gold Glove seasons. Arenado, knowing Arenado, will be back in the mix this year at third. And Donovan and Edman have both earned honors in recent seasons.
Now, my favorite baseball quote comes from the old manager Bob Lemon: “The two-most important things in life are good friends and a strong bullpen.”
Per FanGraphs, the Cardinals project to have the ninth-best bullpen in baseball. Much of this will be predicated on health and rest, the latter affected by the prowess of the starters. The Cardinals wisely acquired guys with swing-and-miss stuff, notably the intriguing Riley O’Brien. And Ryan Helsley is healthy. I’m most worried about Giovanny Gallegos, who has fared well overall in his Ƶ tenure but last year had six blown saves, a 4.42 ERA last year and a, 8.10 ERA in August and September (though, other key Cardinals also tailed off statistically once the trade deadline passed).
As for the Cubs, many stat sites project them to finish within a game or two of the Cardinals. Justin Steele is legit. Last year, he went 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA and a 3.02 FIP (fielding independent pitching), which was second-best in the National League to Atlanta’s Spencer Strider. And Steele finished first in the National League with the fewest home runs allowed per nine innings (0.7). It’ll be interesting to see how new teammate Shota Imanaga does with allowing the long ball. He’s throwing in confines that can prove unfriendly to fly-ball pitchers. But overall, Imanaga was a great get — the Cubs have their two for Games 1-2 of the postseason.
When Sonny Gray is healthy, the Cardinals have their No. 1. But who is No. 2?
In the NL Central, No. 2 is Ƶ. And even in a down year for the division, the Cardinals aren’t the favorites in my eyes.
Besieged by injuries and beset by a agitated fanbase, the Cardinals open their 2024 season against baseball's billion-dollar blockbuster, LA's "galaxy of stars."
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