While there's not much agreement among experts as to who will win the National League Central this year, the consensus is that it'll be a close race and either the Cardinals or the Cubs will prevail with a win total in the mid-80s.
It may depend on your perspective whether it's an edge-of-your-seat division race or a lackluster derby between mediocre teams fighting it out to decide who will quickly be eliminated from the playoffs.
Post-Dispatch baseball writer Derrick Goold labeled it a "mosh pit of parity" in his latest podcast.
However you label it, here's a look at what the experts and the experts' computer models say about this NL Central season ahead of Thursday's opener.
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FanGraphs
like nearly every other outlet, projects a middling division. That site's projections have the Cardinals winning the NL Central by one game. The Redbirds are picked to go 83-79, while the Cubs would finish 82-80 and the Brewers 80-82.
All five teams in the division are separated by just six games in Fangraphs' projections. Cincinnati is picked to go 79-83, and Pittsburgh would bring up the rear at 77-85.
That site gives ºüÀêÊÓƵ a to win the Division. The Cubs are not far behind at 26.2%. The Brewers have a 17.5% chance to take the central.
Baseball Prospectus
deems the Cardinals as a bit more of a clear-cut favorite in the NL Central. The site's PECOTA projections have the Cardinals three games clear of the Cubs, winning 84.2 games to Chicago's 81.2.
Milwaukee has 79.3 wins and the Reds 78.6 in those projections.
ºüÀêÊÓƵ' odds to win the division are 42.9%, nearly double Chicago's 23.8%.
ESPN
ESPN has covered the bases with its projections.
Its writers list Chicago as the pick to win the NL Central.
"They're counting on an influx of top prospects to help out," . "The Cubs boast the best farm system in the National League, and 11 of the organization's top prospects, according to ESPN's Kiley McDaniel, could realistically make their debuts in 2024."
The projections, however, include Bradford Doolittle's win-loss projections, which have ºüÀêÊÓƵ winning 85 games to Chicago's 84.
CBS Sports
Baseball expert and handicapper have the Cardinals (84.5 wins) just ahead of Chicago (83.5). The Reds (81.5) are the only other NL Central team in the picture in Cimini's projections.
Five of six writers , while only Kate Feldman picked ºüÀêÊÓƵ to win the division.
The Sporting News
This the tightest race. The Cardinals, Cubs and Reds are projected to all finish at 81-81 with the Brewers one game back and the Pirates a game behind Milwaukee.
The Sporting News does give Chicago the slightest of edges in odds to win the division (24%). The Reds (23.1%) and Cardinals (21.9%) are just behind.
Post-Dispatch staff
Post-Dispatch writers were evenly split in their division picks, which appeared in the newspaper's recent baseball preview section.
Derrick Goold, Lynn Worthy and Ben Frederickson all went with the Cardinals. Benjamin Hochman, Daniel Guerrero and Jeff Gordon picked the Cubs.
Only Hochman picked the Cardinals to miss the playoffs entirely.
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