The Cardinals are counting on their draft-and-develop operating model to lift them back into perennial playoff contention after last year’s stunning collapse.
But player development comes with a standard disclaimer: Results may vary.
Look at outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson. They are both 25 years old, born roughly one month apart, and they spent parts of three seasons as Cardinals teammates.
But they are very different people who took alternate paths to “the show” and realized contrasting outcomes. While Burleson is working into the Cardinals’ long-term nucleus, Carlson is getting a needed fresh start with the Tampa Bay Rays after his trade ahead of the deadline.
Their journeys illustrate multiple truisms about our national pastime. Baseball’s talent pool is not homogeneous. Progress is seldom linear. Realizing success at the highest level is difficult — and sustaining success is even tougher.
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While the analytics crowd views baseball as a numbers game of matchups and probability, the sport is a very human adventure. The younger Cardinals are proving that this season.
Shortstop Masyn Winn has played with the poise of a 10-year veteran. Meanwhile, his buddy Jordan Walker fell back to Triple-A Memphis, where he only recently broke out of his hitting funk.
Andre Pallante transitioned from relief pitching back to starting while fellow 2019 draft pick Zack Thompson has struggled with that switch.
Brendan Donovan has earned everyday work with his fielding versatility and knack for reaching base. He has taken some second base starts from fellow 2018 draft pick Nolan Gorman, a power hitter struggling to make contact.
Pedro Pages, 25, used superior work behind the plate — calling pitches, framing them, digging them out of the dirt — to win the backup catching role ahead of the offensively promising Ivan Herrera, 24.
Then there are Burleson and Carlson. Back in spring training, it appeared Carlson could open the season in center field while Burleson could be the odd man out of a crowded outfield.
What happened instead illustrates the vagaries of player development
The Cardinals drafted Carlson 33rd overall in 2016 as 17-year-old out of Elk Grove High School in California. He was a multi-tool prospect, a switch-hitter with power potential and corner outfield athleticism.
After playing for his father in an excellent prep program, he passed on a scholarship at Cal State Fullerton to dive right into pro baseball.
Burleson arrived as the 70th overall pick in the 2020 draft out of East Carolina. He was a rare two-way collegiate star, hitting and pitching, before the pandemic cut short his junior season.
He needed just 11 games at High-A Peoria to earn his promotion to Double-A Springfield (Missouri). He reached Class AAA Memphis in his first pro season, struggled a bit in his 45-game trial there, then starred at that level in 2022.
Burleson hit .300 with an .842 on-base plus slugging percentage in two minor league seasons at three levels after hitting .341 with an .883 OPS in college. It’s no wonder he oozes confidence in the batter’s box.
By contrast, Carlson felt plenty of growing pain while jumping to pro ball as a teenager. He hit .240 at Peoria in 2017, then .234 at Peoria and .247 at Single-A Palm Beach in 2018. His breakout came in 2019 with strong showings at Springfield (.882 OPS) and Memphis (1.098 OPS).
He got a 110-at-bat taste of the majors during the 2020 pandemic season, hitting .200; then, he emerged as one of baseball’s top rookies in 2021 while batting .266 with a .780 OPS.
But he suffered a wrist injury that season, and the setbacks kept coming: hamstring and thumb injuries in 2022, ankle and oblique injuries last season, and the shoulder sprain suffered this spring while colliding with Walker in the outfield.
The star-crossed Carlson recovered, but after an abbreviated four-game rehab stint at Memphis, the Cardinals rushed him back to the majors — where he started 0 for 17 and fell into an increasingly diminished role. He lost his place while still struggling to master left-handed hitting eight years into his career.
Maybe the ever-resourceful Rays can help him take that final step
Meanwhile, the ebullient Burleson seized the opportunity created by various injuries and hitting slumps to earn a full-time job. After hitting just .244 with a .691 OPS last season, he hit .275 with a .771 OPS through Monday’s game. Burleson, aka DJ Burly Biscuits, has added much-needed life to the Cardinals lineup order and clubhouse.
The Cardinals will keep their assembly line running. Walker finally produced a hot stretch at Memphis (15 for 42, five doubles, three homers, nine runs, five RBIs). Second baseman Thomas Saggese (32 for 100 in 26 games, with six doubles, five homers and 15 RBIs) turned the corner too.
Chase Davis, the 2023 first-round pick, adapted quickly with his promotion to Peoria (9 for 24, double, homer, six RBIs), while ’24 first-rounder J.J Wetherholt underwent professional orientation at Palm Beach.
Their prospects seem exciting. But baseball being baseball, there’s telling how these journeys will unfold.