While the annual General Manager Meetings didn't end with the usual momentum toward signings or trades for the Cardinals, they did return from Texas and the posh San Antonio resort in a different place than when they left.
Not just Willson Contreras changed positions in that week.
Trimming salaries and declining options a week earlier, the Cardinals had conversations leading into and during the GM Meetings about some of the high-dollar players who wanted to stay with the club, and had the no-trade power to do so. That came in the same week that the Cardinals got some definition for their revenues.
The word execs with the Cardinals called it was "clarity."
That came from two angles. First, the narrow passage of Amendment 2 in Missouri sets the stage for legalized sports betting in the state and will mean a sportsbook opening near Busch Stadium, likely at ballpark village. Second, the Cardinals and Diamond Sports Group, the broadcast company speeding toward a pivotal bankruptcy hearing this week, reached an agreement on a multi-year deal to broadcast Cardinals games and provide a direct-to-consumer streaming option. They are taking a 23% "haircut" on the planned payment from their broadcast partner this season.
But there is now another avenue to open up for future earnings.
This chat comes at a good time.
I'm sure you'll have a lot of questions about the broadcast deal and watching the Cardinals, so this is the time and place to ask. You probably have even more questions about the direction of the team now with revenue gaining clarity, and this is the time and place to ask.
You definitely have opinions about both, and this has always been the time and place to share those, too.
As always, questions and comments are not edited for grammar or spelling. They are deleted for vulgarity. A real-time transcript of your questions and the answers is available below the chat window so that you can read this like any other article on your desktop, mobile, or tablet.
Enough prelude.
And away we go.Â
jm: rumor that Yankees interested in Arenado, any smoke there are pure conjecture?
DG: I saw that on a web site of a notable sports magazine that had a headline along the lines of "Cardinals, Yankees predicted ..." The predicted in that headline is doing a lot of heavy lifting, because it's an article on a site to drive you to another article on that site where they predict seven things to happen, and those range from Paul Goldschmidt signing with the Reds to Tyler O'Neill going to the Yankees* to Juan Soto signing with the Dodgers and so on. Predictions. Take them for what they are, and here's hoping that through this winter we're able to draw a line between entertaining predictions, which are fun for all and anyone can join in, and then reporting, which is attributed. I emphasize with readers who presented headlines for both of these things that look the same and hope that it's abundantly clear the difference.
* Wait, my fault, no Tyler O'Neill is predicted to go to the Astros. Christian Walker is predicted to the go to the Yankees. The Yankees are involved in a lot of predictions. Makes sense. High traffic team. I apologize for the error with where they predicted O'Neill to sign.
Jim fan since 64: I think the Cardinals can still have a contending team even with a "reset". Your thoughts.
DG: The NL Central remains vulnerable and accessible for any of the teams to contend with moves to improve. The Cardinals could be that team and do so within their parameters of a "reset." In several ways, they've already achieved one goal (dropping significant salary) and in another way so much of what they need to do in "reset" is beneath the surface of the major leagues. Yes, they need to and plan to give young players a lot of run in the majors (Pallante, Walker, Nootbaar, a center fielder who wins the job, and so on), but if they add some stability to the bullpen and get production from these young players, they could contend within this division.
Several times during the GM Meetings and in conversations leading up to the GM meetings I heard from people outside the Cardinals organization who saw parallels between the Cardinals of this year and the Brewers of last year. One major difference? Brewers are developing impact players. Cardinals need to do that. And if they can, a handful of folks not with the Cardinals but with other teams or agency told me the Cardinals sound now like the Brewers did 12 months ago, and the standings show how that worked.
Jim fan since 64: Who has the best chance of being the center fielder, Scott, Saian, or somebody else?
DG: Michael Siani, at the moment is the Cardinals center fielder. When asked this past week about creating a competition there, Mozeliak said there are still some strides that Victor Scott II needs to make in the minors as part of his development, and that Siani has the jump on the position. Pun intended. A wild card in this whole thing will be Nootbaar. He has wanted to show and prove he can handle center in the past and moved around a lot for the Cardinals in 2024. Staying healthy. Staying production. And making a case for center field. He may get that chance. But as of today, Nov. 11, the Cardinals see Siani at CF -- and anyone else will have to outperform him to take it.
Jim fan since 64: With so many middle infielders available how does Nolan Gorman fit into the picture? Third, first, second or DH....or is he a trade piece?
DG: Great question. As Mozeliak spoke with a couple of us as the GM Meetings this past week, Gorman did not readily have a home in his description of the lineup. He told me that he did not have Gorman "penciled" in as one of the 1B options. Didn't entirely dismiss it, but with Contreras there -- it's less of a discussion, and more of a Burleson question because he was ahead of Gorman. Gorman is an option at third, if the Cardinals trade Nolan Arenado. He's also a left-handed DH candidate. It seems that Gorman's place on the field and in the lineup is tied to others, and we didn't even bring up how Donovan playing in the outfield would be a factor ... Which, as of this moment, the Cardinals want Nootbaar-Siani-Walker as the outfield, just FYI.
Ron: Which high paid veterans feel like staying and which ones want to go
DG: For the sake of keeping a good pace to the chat, that is covered in detail in the following article, and remains current.
larry harnly: Larry harnly does cris carpenter still work for the angels? might mo try to hire him back?
DG: He still works for the Angels.
Steve C: Hello DG, thank you for hosting the chats. Is the team concerned that this "reset" may last a lot longer than they plan? If they give the kids plenty of time to play and they don't improve, do the Cardinals risk becoming a perpetual bottom dweller?
DG: If it lasts "a lot longer than they plan" then it's on the new leadership for not coming through as assigned. Chaim Bloom has a year to work on creating an improved minor-league system and development program. At the end of that year, he takes over the team that he's created -- with this player development being the engine of his ability to build a contender, too. So, what's the timetable? Sure seems like it's a year. And given the comments of the past week from Mozeliak, it does not seem like he's really interested in going out with a 100-loss team that tanks to make the Cardinals better in 2028. And no wonder. The Cardinals have youth in Winn, but some of the other players set to get ABs and innings (Nootbaar, Donovan, Pallante, Helsley) are entering their prime, and a reset that takes too "long" would be investment in their performance just before they take it elsewhere. This is something to watch, for sure, but as of now they are not plunging into a lengthy timetable, and if they're actions aren't doing that, don't let your expectations do it either.
Matt S: Thanks for all you do Derrick! Any idea how far Crooks and Bernal are away from a major league debut? I know these are always somewhat of a guess but are we looking at 1 year for Crooks and 2 years for Bernal? Seems like the Cardinals have an influx of good catcher talent that's going to be fascinating to see how they handle.
DG: Jimmy Crooks is set to be the priority starter at Class AAA Memphis, and that puts him on deck for his debut. An injury to one of the other catchers in the majors, and he could see the move up. There are of course the usual factors: how he's performing, what the status of the 40-player roster is at the time, and whether the Cardinals turn to Contreras to catch if there's an injury to Herrera or Pages. Even with all of those factors, Crooks is positioned to debut in 2025. Bernal, now 20, has a total of 14 games at Class AA, and that tends to be the spot where a real sense of a player's ETA develops. That puts him one rung and one year behind Crooks, but it could also be a 2027 debut, depending on how he does as the starter at Class AA.
jm: now that the gm meetings are over what is the next event for us to keep an eye out for?
DG: The next gathering is in December in Dallas for the Winter Meetings. The next deadline of note is Nov. 19, and that's the qualifying offer and Rule 5 protection deadline. The Cardinals will have some roster moves ahead of that date. They are, at least, going to add Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby to the 40-player roster and protect them from the Rule 5 draft.
Tacklberry: Aside from Helsley, Nootbaar is probably the asset most likely to get a decent prospect or two, what would be your argument for keeping the oft-injured 27-year old?
DG: I disagree with your premise. Brendan Donovan has interested teams, too. He would get a quality return. My argument is probably the same as your argument for keeping a player -- that you expect the production to outpace the return, and that when you sell low on a player you risk someone else getting the high that you thought was coming and because of your impatience you missed it.
Jrmomo1000: Any chance the cardinals get max for 2025
DG: As of right now, Mozeliak said, in no uncertain terms, they are not shopping for a starting pitcher, and they are not looking into the starter market. He said that two a few of us, and his declaratives at this time of year with free agents are rare.
That said, he did make one carve out on this topic and that was Kyle Gibson. So, not the Mizzou Made starter that you were asking about, but a veteran pitcher off the Tiger tree that could yet get an offer from the Cardinals.
DDWis: DG, who gets the revenue from DTC subscriptions? The Cardinals or Diamond?
DG: Both. That's the deal.
DDWis: Derrick, with the revenue clarity now in place, where do the cardinals stand with their budget? With not picking up options and letting FAs walk, they have a lot of money coming off the books, but Mo said they want to cut more “to be comfortableâ€. Has that changed since the new deal with Diamond and added revenue stream from gambling?
DG: Mozeliak said they got to a good place (they've dropped about $66m from opening day active roster for 2024 and they've trimmed $30 million in spending on 2025). They could cut more ahead of spring training to "give us more flexibility," but he said that the Cardinals got to a good place, quickly, and then had to wait for more details on where the budget was.
This is a different calculus if the Cardinals moved to MLB Media. The hit to their broadcast revenue would be steeper, and that was the leverage that Diamond Sports Group had for renegotiating: Go with us, stay with the current setup, but at a reduced rate, or take a bigger hit and leap to MLB Media. The Cardinals have at least a starting point now for their revenue tracks, but let's not get ahead of the entire story.
The Cardinals a clearer view of their budget, but not a final view. There is another revenue stream that they are counting on being less in 2025.
Ticket sales.
Tell me how the team plays in April and I'll tell you if they'll get an increase there beyond what they expect. And they're aware that a better team means better ticket sales ...
Trader: I know Mo says not going after starting pitching but could that change with the posting of Roki Sasaki? Seems like a team trying to get younger should be betting on a good young starter.
DG: The Cardinals, as of last check, do not expect to be the team he chooses. His posting date will play a lot into this of course, because if he comes for the next international signing date then all of the bonus purses have reset and teams can offer more. The expectation is that he'll get a lot of the same offers and that will give him the choice of where he wants to be. All things being equal -- including the bonus -- what would be the reasons he'd choose the Cardinals right now ahead of the other suitors like San Diego, Seattle, San Francisco, Dodgers ... I'd welcome a list if anyone in the chat wants to provide it.
This would be an excellent exercise, and I'd welcome the conversation on how to make the Cardinals more appealing in that regard.
JP in TN: Derrick, I read the potential for contending and if they had changed dugout leadership, I might buy it a bit more but for the sake of being positive, young position players in the core they have being better than last year is entirely reasonable, pitching staff may be more difficult as they get younger but at some point you have to see what they can be. Question for you given my comments, shouldn't the Cardinals be 100% focused on the huge difference their young talent looks like when they leave? And what are specific things they are doing to address?
DG: Isn't this what they're doing? They've had several years now of players leaving and performing well elsewhere. This isn't new. This isn't a new question. This isn't a new subject. This isn't a new criticism of the team. The list is long, and the examples are well-known at the ballpark, same as they are on social media.
Sure seems like if they weren't already looking into that -- why start now?
They were.
And here is where they have arrived. Back in 2023, at the All-Star Game in Seattle, I wrote about the "opportunity gap" and how that had proven costly for the Cardinals. Mozeliak in his comments this past week at GM Meetings echoed some of the criticism in that article and said it had to be addressed and this is the year they're going to do that. He called it "chasing the next thing" vs. sticking with the rising young talent. We would be wrong to put all of the examples in the same bucket (Randy Arozarena, for example, deserves a lot of credit for being a stronger, powerful player with the Rays than he was as a good hitter for the Cardinals; his work paid off, kudos to him). But there are general lessons to be learned.
And the Cardinals have.
Well, the Cardinals have had time to learn them.
Now they're taking time to correct them. And we'll see how that goes.
I've written in the past and talked often in the podcast that the time for fixating on the talents who left and starred is over. The bigger question facing the Cardinals that they must answer is this:
Why haven't the players they chose to keep seen the same amplification in performance? Stop fixating on who left, and start fixing why they don't get more from the players who stayed.
Chris: Did you hear about how the other division teams were expecting to drop payroll in 2025 with the Diamond contract? It seems the Reds, Pirates and Brewers could all have a worse outcome than the Cardinals. The Cubs seem to be in the best position.
DG: That is all correct. The Reds and Brewers are going to see a significant reduction in revenue from this, and the Reds specifically have said they don't yet know their budget for the coming season because of this situation. The Cincinnati Enquirer's beat reporter and myself were there talking with Nick Krall on this subject when he said that. The Pirates are in a different spot than the Cardinals, Brewers, and Reds, but they choose to do things with their budget that holds them back, as you know. The Cubs are in the best spot, by far. They know it. Will they act upon it?
Jim from DeBary FL: Derrick, any word on the length of the Diamond contract as yet?
DG: It's fluid.
Seriously.
It's less than 10 years, and it's somewhere around five or slightly more, but it's all laced with options that give the Cardinals a chance to leave it if there are issues or there is a better alternative that emerges in the coming years. I know that's not the easy, integer number that you want from a contract, but here we are. That's part of why it hasn't been described with a term.
The options within the deal are also important because the Cardinals have now included their digital rights, and that could be gold in the coming years that they want to be able to access to increase rights revenues.
JoJo Disco: I feel like this organization likes to consider itself a blue blood when it is convenient for them, but then quickly identifies with teams like the Reds and the Brewers when spending comes up. You are either a blue blood or you aren't, you can't sit at that table and then get alligator arms when the bill comes.
DG: I don't get that at all. In fact, the Cardinals -- even this past week -- have said the exact opposite. Mozeliak, when talking with an out-of-town reporter, said that the Cardinals have "been know to punch above our weightclass" when it comes to spending, and that they intend to get back to that. It's been about five, six years where the Cardinals have seen a drop out of the top 10 in payroll, but they haven't dropped into the bottom third, where both Cincinnati and Milwaukee are as market size. This past season, the Cardinals surpassed $200 million in spending for the time. They've shown they can spend beyond their market consistently over their past 20+ years.
I'm not sure why would give them cover or an excuse that they haven't been willing to take. Hold them to their history. If you like their explanation for taking a step back -- revenue uncertainty, ticket sales, poor player, wanting to go young -- that's fine, but then expect them to also do as advertised.
Ownership said, on the record, they want to be in position to outfit a team of homegrown impact with spending to push it over the top. Hold them to that.
mikemk: Hi Derick, would Helsley have greater trade value this winter or at the TD in July? Especially if the team is mediocre at that time.
DG: It's all about playing risk against demand. So, the risk is that he gets hurt during the season or isn't available to be traded at the deadline, so now is the time to move him. The demand is higher at the deadline because you have teams who are contending, limited options for them available, and you can drive the price up with the deadline looming. Either way, it's a tough call. Was recently told by two sources that the Cardinals are inclined to keep Helsley unless they are overwhelmed by an offer this winter.
Jrmomo1000: Any news on trade of arenado
DG: None from over the weekend. The Cardinals are going to explore what interests are out there -- and they're doing this with more than just their third baseman -- and then if a compelling conversation begins, they'll go back to Arenado (or any of the other no-trade players) and see if that's something worth pursuing for the player, too. That's where things stood as of the reporting last week, and as of this morning when I started the chat.
Walt: Could the way the Cardinals evaluated talent be ahead of lack of developing that talent in many scenarios? What if the player they choose for whatever reason simply wasn't as good as the players they didn't choose.
DG: Sure. But then they wouldn't be alone in that mistake. Recall the Mets wanted to trade Wheeler for O'Neill or Bader as the centerpiece, and there were other outfielders the Cardinals had who have gone on to play well for other teams. That's just one example. When looking at the Cardinals' opinion of players also look to other teams -- they weren't the only club who was going to draft Jordan Walker in the first round; they have several teams a year ago who felt they could snag Nootbaar at a low price because they saw a player they thought the Cardinals missed, etc. -- and I think, again, that turns to the focus to what a player does to maximize, amplify, unlock that production. Not the evaluation of the player has having that production.
Jrmomo1000: Thanks for chatting
DG: You're welcome. Thanks for the questions.
Mickey: What’s your guy feel on Arenado, stay or go? Owed too much for even a salary dump? Do you see the Cards sending money with him? Likely he will limit his options to the west coast?
DG: 1) Don't have one at the moment because it's not yet clear what teams are interested, and all I hear from sources with other teams is how complicated any deal would be for him. 2) Not owed too much, no not given the market. Cardinals don't want a salary-dump move. They want a return on his talent. Keep that in mind. 3) Yes. The trade is, after all, why he has a $15-million add on year. 4) Not necessarily, no. That hasn't been mentioned.
Lee: Call me crazy but I am looking forward to what it sounds like the Cards want to do. Let's see what the young players can do, let's see what they have. The moves the last few years have all seemed like a patch work, something to get by and hope it all goes right. I want them to build a team where a couple good free agent signings push them over the top. Who knows, maybe what they have now is better than we expect. It's time to find out.
DG: This captures well what is going on and also what has been going on. Well done.
Brian: HI Derrick, what would "more flexibility" in payroll mean for the 2025 Cardinals? How might that flexibility help a team that says it's not looking deeply at the free agent market?
DG: Well, it's a euphemism I guess for not overspending what they don't know. More flexibility would also be in the other direction -- more room not to be caught if ticket sales plummet to a spot below what they expect. Or, something happens with Diamond Sports Group that completely unplugs the situation.
Jon Rainvold: It’s hard to imagine anyone being softer on the Cardinals than Rick “The Alibi†Hummel but you are sure trying hard.
DG: Rick Hummel was more than just a Hall of Fame baseball writer, celebrated by his peers and honored in Cooperstown for his contribution to baseball writing (I urge you to visit and aspire to the same in your career). He was also a veteran, and on Veteran's Day I expect more respect.
Insult me all you want, I may even share it with the class here. But I'll definitely have to read it. So bring it. Give me your worst.
But on all days and on today of all days, do better, Jon.
Jon Rainvold : 🤡🌎
DG: Uh oh. Jon has emojis and he's willing to use them. I'm really in for it.
Mike: Well this season is going to be a dream one for "The Chat to be Named Later". For YEARS, we've heard, "if only they'd let X play" we'd be winning the World Series in 2 games because the other team would just give up. Well, chatters, it's clear we'll get our wish. Not picking up Gibson's option shows the organization is in full rebuild mode. I can't wait for June when these players have now had a chance to fail -- and many will -- and to hear the collective "if only they'd signed X" comments.
DG: That's a call back to what the Chat used to not be called. Well done. And I think you make a fair point. An addendum to your point would be that the Cardinals are now doing a "rebuild" in the same way they did an "all in" -- which is to say they are doing neither, unwilling to go to either extreme and just finding a different side of the middle.
Mike: On the list of things I didn't expect today was insulting The Commish. Wow. ºüÀêÊÓƵ was blessed with one of the world class baseball writers for many decades. He was a local (and, dare I say, national) treasure. Wow.
DG: Bingo. Amen. Well said.
SE Steve: Derrick, sure seams like Cards are going to trade a catcher or 2. I am a die hard baseball fan. I would not mind if they would just sell off everything to rebuild.
DG: They could. Entering this winter, I expected -- and had heard from several people -- that the Cardinals would hear from interested teams in Herrera. Guess this falls in the same column as the above about other teams evaluating the Cardinals' players in the same way the Cardinals do, and then getting more from them, sometimes. Anyway, with Herrera out of options and the Cardinals have Pages and Contreras at the same position, it made sense for teams to call. Heck, two springs ago -- and spring tends to be a spot where catchers move -- the Yankees and a few other teams came shopping to the Cardinals exploring a deal for Knizner I believe. There was some circling around Herrera when it was unsure whether he'd get another option year, or not. Anyway, all of that is to say, yes, the Cardinals could deal a catcher, and the timing of it could be interesting because it could be part of a deal that gets an impact player that adds to this roster they want to build.
Ryan: Nootbar was a 8th rd pick for perspective here. All 30 teams had 7 cracks at him and 20 or so had an eighth. It’s relevant in todays advanced scouting/travel ball.
DG: Please elaborate what you're trying to illustrate here, thanks. That does not take away from the fact that several teams tried to trade for him a year ago. Teams draft players and then they hope they get better. We don't need to dive into the history of late-round success stories.
But we will!
Paul Goldschmidt, like Lars Nootbaar, was an eighth round pick. Your premise also holds true for him. Did he remain an eighth-round talent in his career, and if so why did the Cardinals have to trade a first-round player and a second-round player in the package of players to get him?
The draft is the entry point.
It's not the final or even definitive evaluation of a player's ability or even upside.
Ryan: A lot has changed from 2006 to 2018 when it comes scouting and the level of ball being played ages 14-22. More tech, better coaching at younger ages( at least where I reside) more availability to see said players. IMO, there should be less “ misses “. Those can be and are true.
DG: That is a reality that I spoke to an American League exec about and how it relates to the Cardinals. They were ahead on the draft for several years, and then the rest of the league caught up, and right about the time that the Cardinals would have drafted players helping them in the past two seasons two things happened. 1) The late round picks that they had benefited from, weren't getting the same talent because those talents were going earlier in the draft. Teams caught up. 2) They didn't have a pick due to the hacking sanctions/penalties. That was 2017. And that has proven costly these days.
Those two factors have chewed into the Cardinals' draft success for sure.
That doesn't change my point about the draft being an entry point. It's absurd to suggest that players cannot improve beyond their draft slot.
Mookie Betts was a fifth round pick. He was taken 172nd overall in 2011. Every team had multiple chances to select him and did not. Now? If you were to hold a draft of MLB players where would he go -- No. 2 overall? Did every team miss that bad in the draft -- or, maybe, does the player deserve credit for getting that much better as he got older, stronger, etc.
Joliet Dave: I know I’ve pestered you with this. Now that there is a TV deal, being 40 miles south of Chicago will I still need to use the MLB package for my Cardinals viewing, if yes or no does the Cardinals broadcast blackout when playing the cubs stay in effect?
DG: Nothing changes for MLB TV subscribers. That is still available to viewers outside the region, and there will be blackouts when the Cardinals are playing the team in your region. That exists today, but MLB and the owners want to do away with that eventually, too. It just won't be today.
What changes with the Cardinals new deal is in the market -- in the Cardinals' region -- you'll be able to buy a direct-to-consumer app and watch the games in market without any blackouts. Live in ºüÀêÊÓƵ City? Don't have cable? Get the app, and you can watch the Cardinals. (That was not possible through MLB TV. Now it will be.)
As the rollout of this product begins, we will have a better understanding of that region as the Cardinals also get that understanding. It's foremost on their mind to reduce as many blackouts as they can and reach as many fans as possible with this app. That goes for Iowa. That goes for Illinois. That goes for their region.
jm: with Burleson's poor stats vs left handed pitching and Contreras bequeathed 1B, I don't see much time for Burleson at 1B or is he slotted for DH and contreras as DH when Burly get time at 1B??
DG: In your scenario, why would you put a bad matchup at DH? The Cardinals would go with an alternative at DH, and then split the DH/1B against right-handers between Contreras and Burleson based on things like workload or if they have a fly-ball pitcher on the mound vs. a groundball pitcher, etc.
TomS: Thank you for your excellent coverage of the Cardinals. It's a primary reason I subscribe. How do the Cardinals rate Chase Davis as a defensive center fielder. Perhaps use a scale of Nootbaar, Carlson, Scott, Siani, or a similar comparison.
DG: This is a great question. The general statement is good, and the followup to that is whether he'll be good enough. That's the description I've received. I've heard from a few scouts that he's better than they expected in the outfield and also that he needs to do something to the things we hear with younger players -- work on reads, jumps, anticipate, not react. Things like that. After drafting him out of college, the Cardinals cautioned about reading too much into his defensive positioning in left because of the ballpark he called home. Fair. And he's shown that with 100 starts in center in the minors. Will be eager to see this spring what his work with McGee is like, and how he looks when he gets a glimpse of Grapefruit League games in center.
JoJo Disco: Do you get a sense that when the reset is over and the Cards look augemnt the young talent, that DeWitt will emerge with a new outlook/appetite for longer contracts for younger superstars (i.e. Harper) and the era of paying less for the back end of the peak years of a 30-something star is over?
DG: I don't know.
SE Steve: Rick Hummel was a great sports writer.
DG: A Hall of Famer in several Halls of Fame, and for good reason.
Jrmomo1000: Do you know what the payroll is for 2025
DG: The Cardinals do not yet know, so if I did, they would be asking me -- which would be quite a turn of events.
Not to be too flip, but there are a couple of reasons for this. 1) As detailed here and many places, they are still trying to pin down some revenue streams and set the budget; that includes ticket sale estimates, and that process is going on right now with season ticket renewals. Etc. 2) Teams don't set a hard fast, fixated budget for the winter. The Cardinals don't. The Reds don't. The Yankees don't. The Yankees' budget for payroll will shift depending on where Soto signs. With them, it will be higher. With someone else, and you won't see them spend to fill that vacuum, likely. Payroll budgets are annually flexible at this time, and they more talk about a range -- and it's based on moves and opportunity. The Cardinals' payroll coming out of 2018 was one thing, and then they had a chance to trade and re-sign Goldschmidt and it was something else. Same with the before/after of Arenado deal. It flexes. And if you see comments from other teams at this time of year, that's what they mean about not yet knowing their budget. The twist this year, is that for about 12-15 teams they also don't know their TV revenue. That's an issue.
cbow: Aren't we being a little sensitive? It was hardly an insult, just his perception of what he has read. I suppose that's where we are today in society.
DG: You could consider it from your perspective for a moment and see how you feel about it. What would be the equivalent in your line of work? Ponder that. Get back to me. And you're not even considering the day either, or -- how much he meant to his friends and colleagues.
If that makes me sensitive, I refuse to apologize.
BL: While I love to see Nootbaar make the CFer case for himself, and can see that as being playable, it seems to fly in the face of the portion of keeping healthy being the first key point for him. Why increase stress on the body when they aren't looking for him to be a GG but for him to be a catalyst in the lineup?
DG: Fair questions. Part of the conversation. The jury may be out on where the best spot to play in the outfield is to avoid injury. It changes from outfielder to outfielder that I talk to. Allen Craig brought up the hard stops of the corner positions as something that was harder on his body than say the footwork and activity at first base. Some outfielders have talked about how in center you just run, no brakes. While in the corners, there are the brakes -- either in the corners, or at the foul line, or going into the crowd along foul territory. All those are factors in health. For some outfielders, they talk about being more durable with less ground to cover. So, it really must be in the cleats of the beholder.
Jim S Shields: I'm disappointed in the direction we are going, it's not okay for the Cardinals to not put the best product on the field and say it's a reset, to accept a losing season before it starts due to needing to reallocate funds to the minor leagues show's me you weren't doing a good job in the past, it's now time for you to start thinking outside the box! Do the job you have been paid to do. I believe the management has totally let the players down, particularly the ones that came here with the expectations that the Cardinals wanted to win. I ask why any player would want to stay if they aren't committed to winning?
DG: All fair, especially the part about getting outside the box, so to speak. Can't spend like the other teams or the other years -- OK, find a new way to mean the same expectations. That's the job.
Ryan: Baseball Ref lists Josh Reddick as a somewhat recent comp to Nootbaar. I’ve read a lot in this space that the FO wants to give a long runway many times to Lars or I Josh I mean. Really? Interesting thought process. He’s 27 not 23 for what that’s worth.
DG: Baseball Reference also compares Josh Reddick to Paul O'Neill at ages 29-30. I seem to recall O'Neill was a pretty good player then, and that Reddick had a 30-homer season and won a Gold Glove that same year, no? Guess it's all in what you want to read on that same page.
Tyler: With Thomas Saggese’s success in fall league, does he have a real shot at opening day starter at 2B? I’ve got to say defensively that seems like a solid middle infield
DG: Even without that success he had a shot. He's out there to work on his command of the strike zone, and he also appears to be feasting on pitching that he's way ahead of. That won't be the pitching he sees in Jupiter, let alone the big leagues, so keep that in mind. But the strides with the strike zone are valuable, and are going to add to his claim and bid to being in the Cardinals' lineup. That opportunity is there for him this spring.
Ryan: Please rank how the org sees these 3 for having the better chops for 3rd as of today? My opinion may differ, but curious theirs. Donovan, Prieto, Saggese in no particular order. Yes, I left Gorman for this discussion.
DG: Donovan won a Gold Glove Award in part because of his strong play at third. So, the answer isn't a shock. We all watched that. It's Donovan.
And if you included Gorman in this discussion, the answer would be Donovan.
Jon: Derrick- Thanks for all of your work. The fans are lucky to have had such a long tradition of outstanding writers covering this baseball team. I apologize if this has been covered in a previous chat, but with the upcoming changes to the Post Dispatch deadlines (earlier in the day) and printing, will this affect our baseball coverage? Will box scores still be printed? Again, thanks for your time and patience. Have a Happy Thanksgiving.
DG: Jon, It will impact the baseball coverage and change what appears in the paper -- but it also gives us a chance to enhance that. The editors at the paper are now in the planning process and looking at exactly what this means for how we cover the team. In the near future, the writers will be involved in that discussion. There is good news:
We've been planning for this for awhile, and if you saw some of the changes and additions and expansion to the coverage in recent years, you'll now see how that was preparing to maintain the quality of the product (even improve it) when the deadlines shifted.
An example?
The Post-Dispatch was one of the remaining papers to get the game story in the next day's paper. This was important to us and to pull that off we came up with the Quick Hits style of gamer, that you may notice with the subhed and different sampler-size style of game coverage. We followed that every day with a deeper, detailed story that was about the game or a trend or an individual or news or whatever. The Quick Hits was filed and posted at the final out; so we had all the time to report after to give you an in-depth story from the game that appeared the next day at 6 a.m., online. We were increasing the content and providing in-depth web coverage in preparation for offering that same menu of stories -- urgent, in-depth, exclusive -- for print as deadlines shifted. And here we are. We will have more details as editors finalize the plans
Our goal remains the same: A quantity and quality of coverage you cannot get anywhere else.
We want to line up with the best baseball coverage from any newspaper or other media outlet in the country. That has been the standard. That remains the goal.
Bryan C: We all know the Cardinals are going to spend money on upgrading the minor league system. My question, with the TV money now being settled do you think there is any chance Bill will let Mo try to build a playoff team for 2025?
DG: ADVISORY ... The following answer is not a defense of the Cardinals or even an advocacy of their stance. It is an explanation of where the team is. Again, this is not my advocacy or my opinion or my defense. It is only an explanation.
That is not how they presented it, no. Not in those terms. There are still unknowns in the revenue, as we've discussed here. They want to change the approach to the year and do it differently than years past, and they are not advertising spending with that purpose, nor are they quietly behind the scenes seeking to do that either. They are, to date, doing what they advertised.
Ed AuBuchon: Looks like we're going back to " The Bat Plays" with Contreras playing 1st base. That didn't work out well with Martinez at 1st base. What's a few errors?
DG: I would caution you against comparing the two. I guess we'll find out together. I read a lot online and in my email and even in the chats about Jordan Walker playing 1B because he was drafted as a 3B. No one seems to wonder how he played at 3B, only that he must be comfortable at first base because, I don't, infield or something.
Well, by the standard, guess where Willson Contreras began his pro career?
Ahem.
Third base.
Bryan C: What do you think the Cardinals will get done at the winter meetings?
DG: There are many days between now and then, and I'm not sure of the timing. Not really sure that they are. Would not be a surprise if the winter meetings are where some of the trades come to fruition, especially as the free agent market moves. If it moves.
Illinois cardinals: Gorman's back problems and propensity to strike out really bother me. His power, tho, should interest some clubs. Any serious talk of getting prospects for him while the jury is still out on him?
DG: Not really. He is the prospect. He didn't have any of the back issues this past season, so that is to be applauded. He did have the strikeout issues. But if he's bopping 40 homers, maybe you can stomach a few strikeouts. That's for you and the Cardinals to decide based on individual tolerance.
Craig: Hi Derrick, you’ve commented on how the Cardinals are working with Jordan Walker to make changes to his swing, similar to what the Yankees did with Aaron Judge at a similar age. According to a recent article in The Athletic, the private hitting instructor, Richard Schenck, who worked with Judge and helped make him what he is, and continues to work with him, is from ºüÀêÊÓƵ and is a Cardinals fan. Do you know if he has worked with any of the Cardinals hitters, and would it not behoove the Cardinals to get Walker some time with him? Thanks.
DG: That story was written about by my colleague Ben Frederickson in 2018, and you can read it here.
As far as Jordan Walker -- he's in Jupiter there, working with the Cardinals and at their facility at last check. That is who the Cardinals have working with him. Some of the changes are similar to Judge's, but not all. They have a similar body type, so that's where the comparison comes and they both were trying to unlock more power/loft at this age. If Walker pursues outside coaching, his agent and him will seek it, and the Cardinals have, traditionally, encouraged that.
Colin B: Mr. Goold, do you anticipate Soto's market lasting through Spring Training? Furthermore, with all the budget uncertainty (which...isn't the Diamond bankruptcy final hearing this Friday?) of so many of the teams, do you anticipate the MLBPA repeating it's call of collusion if the pitchers fail to sign early again? The players and agents have something to do with that, but it sure seems like lots of teams will take it slow on FAs.
DG: I do not -- for both questions. I may be way off here on Soto, but lingering into spring training? That doesn't seem likely. So many of the teams interested in him would like to pivot elsewhere (Yankees, Phillies, etc.) with their spending and team-building. Boras told a group of us reporters this past week that he actually expects the starting pitching market to move first, and that is the read some of the teams had, too. For the Cardinals, that is where they are going to have conversations as the market presents options, and some teams look to trade for a Matz, as an example, instead of singing a free agent.
Bryan C: With Arenado, Winn, and some combination of Donovan or Saggese at second, I would hope the Cardinals had a very good glove at first. I would really hate not to take advantage of the very good defense from the other three. Is there a good glove first baseman that can hit on the Cardinals?
DG: It's a great point. I know that within the Cardinals' front office and baseball ops this has been part of the conversation, and it appears to have influenced their call on Contreras after Mozeliak and the All-Star catcher had a conversation.
Mike: Tying together a few chat threads: Albert Pujols; 13th round draft pick; 3B.
DG: Pretty good player, no? And was superb for a good stretch of his career at first base. Amazing what a lot of diligent and intelligent and relentless work can do for someone who already has ability.
Bryan C: The Cardinals outfield is a big problem. Scott or Siani in center. Walker in right. Burleson in left? Burleson at first, Scott in left if he hits? Donavan in left and at second at different times? But what if Walker and Scott does not start hittingbyMay? What will Mo's plan be?
DG: As mentioned earlier, the Cardinals current OF setup is, left to right: Nootbaar, Siani, and Walker. That is their starting point for 2025.
Jon Rainvold: "Aren't we being a little sensitive? It was hardly an insult, just his perception of what he has read. I suppose that's where we are today in society."
Derrick is the most sanctimonious beat writer I’ve ever encountered.
DG: Encountered? Interesting. I doubt we've met. If you've only encountered two beat writers in your life, this isn't much of a compliment, Jon. Or an insult. If you're comparing me to one of the greats, then I've got to close the gap somehow. Thanks for reading my work.
Ed AuBuchon: It might be premature to say Contreras will play 1st base if we're listening to offers on a catcher?
DG: Maybe. I said earlier that entering the winter that it was they expected. That could have changed with Willson Contreras expressing his wishes to remain a Cardinal. He has a no-trade clause. He has a say.
Bryan C: Unless Mo makes a big trade for a bat, I think the 2025 Cardinals defense starts the season like this. Herrera catch, Contreras 1st, Saggese 2nd, Winn ss, Arenado 3rd, Donovan LF, Siani CF, Walker RF and Burleson DH. Do you agree with my thinking? Thank you.
DG: Again, I do not. Lars Nootbaar is a factor in this lineup and a factor in their planning and a factor in how the team is trying to clear playing time for players so they don't go elsewhere to get it and thrive.
Jackie: Understand that you are just reporting what the team says to you. But, it is somewhat vexing to hear you say that Nootbar is in the conversation in CF. He has a -1 DRS in CF in approximately 800 career innings in CF comprising parts of 3 season. Siani is +8 in basically the same amount of innings. That is a Delta of +9, and cannot be ignored or understated. The entire Cardinal team was had +29 print in 2024. 21 of which were produced by 2 players alone, Winn and Siani. So the hear that they consider CF open for competition is somewhat bizarre and very Cardinal like in my opinion.
DG: I am not "just reporting what the team says" to me. That's not the job. That would make for boring coverage. Last week, at the GM Meetings I spoke to many people not with the Cardinals about the Cardinals and that informed the coverage all week -- with quotes from rival execs showing how they got ahead with development and contrasting that with how the Cardinals are falling behind. Or, getting in touch with agents, scouts, and officials who have a view of what moves the Cardinals are trying to make but won't talk about. The Cardinals did not comment on Sonny Gray, and yet there was a lot of information about Gray's viewpoint. That is what I'm just doing. Just reporting. Just so we're clear.
Don't be vexed.
Please go back and read my explanation.
Players can improve. That does happen. And teams give them that chance, no?
bringtonyback: where does donovan work into 2025 DG if nootbaar and siani is in the outfield and sageese is heir apparrant at 2nd ?
DG: In that scenario, Donovan could be 2B. He could be at 3B. He could be a variety of places. The bad news for the Cardinals is they don't have a clear set answer for this question yet. The good news is that they don't have to play tomorrow.
Jrmomo1000: Can nootbar play CF
DG: He did for Team Japan when it won the World Baseball Classic. This is a question that is getting a lot of attention today, when it really is just something to watch develop with playing time in spring.
Mike: DG: This is the offseason that I finally read "The Iowa Baseball Confederacy". It's next on my TBR pile. Any other recent (this year or last) baseball books out that you'd recommend or that are on your TBR pile? Just finished "K" by Tyler Kepner from a few years ago. Excellent. As was "Charlie Hustle" by Keith O'Brien. Always try to fill the offseason with good baseball reading.
DG: Iowa Baseball Confederacy is so superb. I've got Andy Martino's The Yankee Way and Andy McCullough's The Last of his Kind as baseball books to read from this past year, as far as non-fiction go. Might go back to some of the classics this winter as far as fiction. David Carkeet's Greatest Slump, for example.
Jrmomo1000: Can you see some AAA pitchers in the pen this year
DG: Yes. Mozeliak volunteered that's a possible place for McGreevy, pending the sorting out of rotation spots. And Gordon Graceffo is speeding that way, too. Will be real interesting what they do with Quinn Mathews, the lefty. There's a lot of upside there, and had the Cardinals been better this past season he would have had some advocates to join the big-league team as a relief factor late in the year just because of his stuff and strikeouts.
Heath: Does Arenado seem okay with playing for the Cardinals during this "reset" or do you get the impression he'd rather go to a more serious contender?
DG: To date, Arenado's representatives have declined comment his feelings, and so have the Cardinals. That makes sense when you hear the explanation I've received from sources elsewhere. It will hinge on what options the Cardinals find out. That is at least how sources describe the approach to this. Compare sticking with the Cardinals vs. the teams interested in trading, and it's possible that the Cardinals remain the best option of the group. That has to be decided, and can only be decided when alternatives (if any) are discovered by the Cardinals as they look into trade talks.
Heath: If Helsley is traded who do you think would be the top 3 contenders for closer?
DG: This is a good exercise because you probably will get a different answer from anyone you ask. Let's give a try, though.
Ryan Fernandez.
JoJo Romero.
Matthew Liberatore.
As I started in on that I expected more of a sleeper pick somewhere in there. Maybe you won't get that many different answers! That's just choosing from players currently on the roster. They could introduce other candidates with moves, or with a look at a reliever who had limited or no time in the bullpen this past year. They have high expectations for Roycroft, as an example. Graceffo? Does he fit his way into that ...
Jackie: "Players can improve. That does happen. And teams give them that chance, no?" Ok. But then what's your read on opening up the starting SS position for defensive competition from Donovan. He is a -1 at that spot for his career, and could improve right? Point being is that it is just as ludicrous of a proposition. Nootbar has done nothing in his professional career defensively in the outfield to merit playing CF on a team that also has Siani on the same 26-man. Nootbar's DRS score is progressively worse the last 3 straight seasons in RF, going from +5, to +3, to only +1. Add in the fact that Nootbar has played over 3000 innings in the outfield in his young career, and his defensive upside in largely a known quantity, and nowhere near Siani.
DG: What a fascinating question you've posed by completely leaving out the offensive aspect of the conversation. I cannot imagine at all why you would do that.
Masyn Winn was an elite fielder by many advanced metrics, and he led the majors at his position for DRS. Donovan could indeed play shortstop at a reasonable or average level and improve at the position, like we've seen many players do. (David Eckstein improved at shortstop while a member of the Cardinals, you may recall.) But is the offensive upgrade necessary to make that move. Because Winn, in addition to being an elite fielder, was also above average offensively, too. And you know what?
He's going to improve there.
So, let's not oversimplify the situation and act like you're replacing a plus-14 DRS with a minus-1 DRS and there is no other factor in play. The bat matters. It's all about a sliding scale, and it's not even for the individual. A team with some thumpers at other positions can afford to carry a glove-first defensive player at some positions. (See: Molina, Yadier c. 2005.) Let's take that into account and not just ignore it as a factor. Siani was a plus-8 in center field. Nootbaar was even. So that's a gap of eight, not 15. Now let's look at the offense. Lars Nootbaar created runs at 14% better than league average, and I don't think he or the Cardinals would call this past year a particularly productive year, and still he was 14% above league average. Siani was 26% below league average, and Scott II was 60% in his limited MLB time.
No wonder you left that factor out.
So which gap is bigger -- the one between Nootbaar and Siani in center according to the stats you used, or the one at the plate that the Cardinals also have to consider?
Adam: Is there any talk of moving Helsley to the rotation if he is not traded? He seems like their clearest path to finding another top of the rotation starter.
DG: There is not, no. They like how this last year worked out for him a lot.
CJ: Take 2 - do you have any insight on what compelled Chaim Bloom to choose the Cardinals over another organization? Was there any competition from other orgs to join them instead?
DG: He was under contract with the Cardinals, so that was really the team with the first dibs, and after the year he spent with them and the promise they made to him -- not to mention a lucrative five-year deal that gives him security for the next six -- that was the offer he accepted. If you want to dial back a year ago, there were other teams that talked to him about a role, and he found the right fit for that time with the Cardinals so that he could be at home more after years of the baseball work hours, and that was just one of the examples. Now, he joins an organization he's had a chance to scout, audit, know first, and doesn't have to go in cold. Moreover, the Cardinals are willing to let him build the runway for his takeoff, and he has the next year to do it. That might be more appealing than dropping into a team and starting from that day with no runup.
Mike: In reply to Jackie ... Derek Jeter has done nothing in his professional career defensively at shortstop to merit playing SS on a team that also has A-Rod on the same 26-man. Jeter's DRS score is progressively worse most seasons; -13, -13, -27, -16, -24 and was only above 0 one time. Derek Jeter is a complete bum and should never have been a starter. Bench bum, waste of space.
DG: Imagine being a "bum" like this and still finishing one vote shy of being a unanimous selection to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. What a world.
Mark: Derrick, thanks for all of your great work. We've been fortunate here in STL to have writers like yourself, Mr. Hummel, Mr. Strauss, Mr. Broeg, and many others. My question for you, from your earlier mention of something Mo said, is that they are not pursuing starting pitching. Does that mean a possible rotation of Gray, Fedde, Mikolas, Pallante, and Matz? Or does McGreevy have a good chance of joining that group?
DG: It definitely does with this current roster. Trades, as we all know, could change that. McGreevy would be the next man up, per Mozeliak, as he described the rotation. To be candid, it's not impossible the Cardinals get an offer for Fedde they cannot turn down, and that trade would open a spot. Fedde is a great price for what he could provide the Cardinals, but other teams see that too, and if they offer a deal the Cardinals will listen. There are ways for spots to open up.
One of the interesting questions to me is who is after McGreevy? No. 7 Graceffo? Or is that Mathews now? Hence and Roby are on the depth chart somewhere, and Hence could be in the majors at some point in 2025, but where does he begin the year in their mind on the rotation depth start. I find that all fascinating.
JoJo Disco: Would you agree that having a year to audit the team, plus an extra year to implement his changes sets the bar pretty high for Year 1? It isn't like he's never run an organization before. This transition year seems more about Mo than it does about Bloom's actually need for it.
DG: I would definitely agree and intend to adjust how I cover the team accordingly. You are welcome to do the same for how you root for the team.
bringtonyback: DG, has the cards ever thought of making their own network to show there own games and have older games replayed like a netflix type network or is the problem MLB controls all of the older games or do a co channel with the blues
DG: They have. They explored it with the Blues many years ago, and they looked into it again this past year. They will continue to look at the options. The payoff could be significant, but there are hurdles galore and reduced revenue at the beginning. One hurdle: Distribution. It's why you see teams leap to MLB Media, because MLB Media is going to handle the distribution to carriers for the teams. One less headache. And you may or may not recall that it was a serious headache for Dodgers and Cubs when they first launched their stations and had to deal with a portion of their fan base not getting the channel, at all.
The Cardinals, as part of their broadcast partnership, have an inventory of their own games. That is actually something I asked about recently.
Tim from NJ: Hi Derrick. Getting back to the hacking draft pick loss to Houston. What pick was that and what did the Astros do with that pick. In your opinion please explain the cascading effect not having that pick played out in the years that followed and how that impact is still felt today. Yhanks
DG: Fair question, and I think you did well here to challenge or at least force me into a better explanation. That's welcome.
The Cardinals forfeited their top two picks, and remember they knew this going in so they also weren't all that worried about losing a first-round pick to sign a free agent. When they had to hand over the picks, they were Nos. 56 and 75. That's quite a ways into the draft. Houston picked two players who did reach the majors: RHP Corbin Martin and 2B JJ Matijevic. Matijevic played this past year in Mexico. Martin has bounced a round a bit, but here's where it gets interesting -- he was part of the Astros trade for Zack Greinke.
That's where the rubber meets the road of this as an example of how the Cardinals missing out on a draft comes back to give them trouble. Whether they got an impact player from the draft or not, they lacked the inventory of talent from that draft. And really they lost three picks from that draft (and the bonus money to go with them, further hampering signing or reaching later in the draft). The Cardinals didn't sign a player for a bonus greater than $450,000. They really couldn't. They got a handful of big-leaguers in that deal, and that list includes Kramer Robertson, Scott Hurst, and the WAR-leader of the group, reliever Kodi Whitley. From a draft, they did not get much assist in the majors or players to trade for that assist, and these past two years overlap with when players like Tanner Houck (24th overall) or Brent Rooker (35th overall) from that draft are finding their place as contributors, All-Stars in the majors.
Chris: How far has Zach Thompson fallen? Wow.
DG: He's in that list. He's at Class AAA. He's got a place with the team. That is an oversight on my part for not listing him there beside Graceffo.
Jrmomo1000: Will the cards be in o. The Japanese pitcher
DG: Roki Sasaki? Every team will seek out a conversation, including the Cardinals. At that time. His pursuit is going to be different than some of the others because he's not a free agent in the Yamamoto sense. He's bound to the service-time offers and posting system that Ohtani had when he came over before reaching free agency. And similar, while the offers will all look alike, he'll be able to choose what team he wants, essentially.
Jackie: "So which gap is bigger -- the one between Nootbaar and Siani in center according to the stats you used, or the one at the plate that the Cardinals also have to consider?" Respectfully, I do not think the numbers you cited proves your point. Nootbar was 14 percent above average in 109 games, and has missed over 150 games due to injury the last 3 seasons combined. He has to actually play to cover games at plate, no? Of which he a clearly demonstrated he is unable to do on a consistent basis. Even with the abdominal injury Siani played almost 15 more game in his debut season that Nootbar ever has. But even putting aside health and stipulating that there is a 40 percent delta between their offensive level, Siani’s +8 DRS placed him 10th in MLB of all CF’s. Nootbar’s -1 in 800 innings would of placed him as tied for 128th in MLB CF in 2024. That is a significantly bigger delta than the offense on it’s face. I will trade the +9 DRS delta defensively and the player who actually can play, for the 40 percent delta loss in offense at CF for a player who routinely misses more than 1/3 of all games played.
DG: Except, I wasn't using counting numbers. I was using rates, so they took in account the production over time as a mean to compare apples to apples. But, sure, yes, durability and playing is part of this. For sure. A player has to be on the field to produce. It's why trainers/coaches say availability is an ability.
And, while we're at it, you mention games to argue that Nootbaar missed time, and that's fine, but left out of that example is how when comparing the offensive production of these players Nootbaar had more plate appearances (405) than Siani (334) in 2024. Yes, he has to be in the field more, and if he does then the Cardinals would welcome his offensive production, too, and that brings us back to where I've been all along. As they sort through their options at some point the tradeoff on defense for the upside on offense is always part of the conversation.
And here we are.
U R ON THE INTERNET BUDDY: Thank you for continued work, Derrick. I'm happy to see your activity pick up on Bluesky. Do you foresee that platform becoming as mainstream as Twitter/X for sports journalism?
DG: I do not, not at this point. Xwitter still drives so much traffic to many media outlets and brings readers to the work. BlueSky does not have the population yet to pull that off. We'll see if it's growth accelerates, but we can see the studies on where readers come from to media outlets, and Xwitter remains a leader.
I do intend to see what the community is like there, because a social media site doesn't have to be only about driving traffic. It can be about interaction and pleasant conversations.
Marpdagn2: I think its safe to say the majority of your readers are not overly enamored with the Cardinals manager. Despite the extension handed down by Mo, do you see Bloom finding his "own guy" if things go south next season?
DG: If we covered baseball like politics, this is the point in time where I would drop details of an approval rating poll.
That's a big if you've put in there. Better to just stick to the prediction and suggest "when." What this comes down to for the manager and for others with the Cardinals is a yearlong job interview. I've heard it described that way. For Oliver Marmol, it's already started, and he came out of conversations about the team's future and Chaim Bloom's role in it feeling in synch and encouraged with the part he'll play and how it fits what he sees as his skills. Well, here's the season to show that. Bloom will be watching.
A good way to keep the job you want is to be successful doing it when you have it.
chico: So,If Mo is POBO and GM,will Bloom do both as well? If not,who do you think he would tab for GM?
DG: That is not the plan, per DeWitt and Mozeliak. The GM position is open for Bloom to hire.
Josh: Are you at all surprised that that isn't more love this week for Gray or Contreras? They volunteered to stick around in ºüÀêÊÓƵ knowing next year could a rough one and help the team through it. I know other factors might've been in play, but those sound like traits that are easy to root for.
DG: I am sure there is, and people just aren't sharing it. That's not a surprise at all. Anger tends to be a motivator when it comes to writing something online or in a chat. As we see on social media -- and as we saw for generations with letters to the editor. Contentment isn't much of a motivator to put pen to paper. I trust a majority of fans nodded, smiled, maybe even fist-pumped when they read the news and told a friend or talked about it over a pint or cuppa tea. They weren't moved to pick up the phone and rant.
Also, there was a lot going on last week.
Marpdagn2: On a contending team, Siani is not a starter, unless its for somebody like the 1975 Cincinnati Reds. He'd be a fine fourth outfielder, but VSII has tons more upside. And if we are going to play the kids, and Siani is not expected to outhit Scott by all that much, why not let Scott play?
DG: If that series of events happen, then it's a question that will be asked in spring training.
One thing to note in all this, and it's worth pointing out, is that there are members of the Cardinals' staff/etc that believe Siani has offensive upside and was showing it before he got injured.
Amir: I don't believe I've seen many succession plans in MLB similar to what Bloom and the Cardinals have agreed to. Do you believe we'll see more plans similar to this moving forward? Bloom seems to have been set up for success in ways that should be attractive to those who fill POBO & GM roles moving forward
DG: There's one in Philadelphia just this past week. Preston Mattingly, Don's son, moves up to GM, while Sam Fuld finishes his master's, and then Fuld graduates he'll have a higher role with the Phillies, could even be as Dombrowski successor. That's just most recent news in succession. There have been others, but most of them involve a POBO promotion with a GM coming in or coming up as the heir. As far as a direct comparison to the Cardinals approach here: We have seen this with managers -- twice in Kansas City! Both Yost and Matheny came in as advisor roles, audited the team, and so on, and then in the next year or so were managing the MLB club.
Will we see it happen elsewhere?
Well, as with everything MLB, if it works, you will, for sure. And we have seen it in some variation do that already.
Marpdagn2: Hey DG. In your opinion, is there an "impact" outfielder out there that could be had in a trade for the Cardinals? It would seem that player would have to be young, have several years of control, and be ready to step in and play. Would something like Gorman and Fedde or Graceffo be enough to land said player?
DG: I understand where you're going with this because I was there too at the beginning of the offseason. Candidly, I even expected to spend a good bit of the past month trying to pin down whether the Cardinals could pull off a trade for Rooker and what that looks like what to pay attention to if it was a possibility. Cardinals unplugged those thoughts with their presser and with conversations they've had with other teams going into this offseason. That's not the deal they're looking for -- not at the moment. They're going to stick with the in-house options at this point. If that changes, then I've already got a head start on some of those questions ... Fedde would not be, no. Gorman would be.
BL: I see you're on Threads as well? The artist formally known as Twitter used to be so much more entertaining and less vitriolic 10 years ago. Now it's just... disheartening. Or at least that's how it's felt to me.
DG: I've been exploring all sorts of social media outlets through the years. BlueSky. Post. Mammoth. Had an early spot on Tumblr more than a decade ago, I believe. Instagram. Got a page for the coverage at Facebook that they won't let me rename. Anyone know how to do that? I've tried. Will try again. Turns out Baltimore has gotten more competitive and Bird Land is theirs; the fact it's been a blog at the PD since 2004ish cannot compete. But, yes, always curious for the best way to grow readership and connect.
chico: I don't think it's fair to other teams for the Dodgers to tend a contract to Otani like they did,Are there other instances to someone who got a similar contract? They should not be allowed,imo,and why would the players association even allow it? You play,you should get paid for services rendered.
DG: Oh, he'll get paid for services rendered for sure. There is nothing that compares to Ohtani's deal. Not at all. But he's not the first to have a substantial portion of his deal deferred. Bobby Bonilla famously did and there was even Bobby Bonilla day each year when the Mets had to cut him a check. Bruce Sutter had deferred money in the deal he signed with Atlanta. Ken Griffey deferred a whole bunch of money. Pretty sure Orioles slugger Chris Davis had a whopping amount of money deferred. Arenado did, too, and then he deferred more with interest for the Rockies and more without interest for the Cardinals to make a trade possible. We see all kinds of creativity with deferments. Just nothing on the size of Ohtani's. It's a deal as rare as his talent.
Dave Bauer: Throughout the discussion of front office personnel, I have not heard Randy Flores' name come up. Will he stay in his current role?
DG: He is an assistant general manager, and he oversees amateur scouting. That is not all he does, though -- as he was a confidant for Mozeliak when it came to decisions throughout baseball ops. That has not changed. If this helps: Teams are limited on the number of execs they can bring to the GM Meetings. It's not the huge summit, high population that is the winter meetings. The Cardinals had executive John Vuch there for meetings early in the week, and later in the week the group included Mozeliak, Bloom, Flores, assistant general manager Moises Rodriguez, and newly hired AGM Rob Cerfolio. Bloom had a lot of meetings for hiring people, while Mozeliak rep'd the team at the GM sessions, and he also, as mentioned in the PD and elsewhere, had more time "off campus" to participate in hirings.
Craig: Thanks for the response. This is an area of player development that I find fascinating. I get that players go off on their own and pay for it themselves, but surely teams must have some input. I can’t imagine a team would be too thrilled to have a player they’ve invested millions of dollars in get private instruction that goes completely against what the team feels the player needs to work/improve upon. If there’s a facility/instructor with a track record of success at helping players do what the team wants their player to get better at, would they not point them in that direction? Can you talk a little bit more about this? Thanks.
DG: For sure they would. And you've hit on why the Cardinals want to catchup -- so that more of these things can be done under their umbrella with experts they hire and are exclusive to them, working for the most from their players, etc., etc. And yes there are plenty of examples of where players go to places and don't see the added improvement. There's always debates about that with each of the outside options. Again and again and again it comes down to the player -- the player being willing to explore and seek out and then the player being open minded and aware that the instruction that helped one player may not be the instruction that helps him, and go seek it somewhere. The Cardinals have over the past year or so seen a lot of this as Gorman visits Driveline, Nootbaar, Arenado, and Goldschmidt do too; Pallante and Thompson go to a pitch-craft facility outside of Charlotte last year; Matz goes to Driveline in Phoenix this year. And so on. This has been going on for ages, and it's just gotten higher dollar and higher tech. It used to be a player like Adam Wainwright going off to work with a personal trainer -- everyone remembers Sheepdog, right?
Right?
Oh, well then you're in for a treat, as more than a decade ago I went to visit Adam Wainwright in his hometown and filed this story.
Millo Miller: Greeting Derrick and thank you for your time. With the TV mess MLB is in do you see the players association and MLB finally getting a salary cap and salary minimum? You are going to have a handful of teams able to afford the top talent, and it seems the top Japanese talent wants to head to the west. Your thoughts.
DG: No. A salary cap is a non-starter for the players' union. Fans and the game lost a World Series when owners tried to pursue one in the 1990s, and I don't think there's appetite on either side to do that again, so they continue to find alternatives.
Let me also add that owners aren't exactly keen on a cap, either, not with what it would require. To reach a cap, the sides have to agree on two things -- how to split the revenue pie and how to define the revenue pie. Defining the revenue pie means opening up the books to the other party to see the full scope of the revenue. MLB owners have not been eager to do that, and the union would require it.
As far as talent from Asia gravitating toward the West Coast, one way to address that has already been attempted -- with an international draft. The sides got close enough to that in the previous CBA talks that it was a possibility. It will be revisited this next time.
Jrmomo1000: I saw were they may trade feede
DG: I wrote that. Good that it's getting mentioned as a possibility based on that reporting.
JoJo Disco: You may find this unfair, but given the TV resolution (plus the streaming upside) and the gambling approval, seeing this team take a step back in 2025 after the last two years is like an employee taking the Monday off after being on vacation for a week. It just feels like DeWitt should be buying the fanbase's attention next year and solving the ticket sales that way, not lowering payroll in anticipation of reduced sales. Sales can still happen if you give fans a reason to buy.
DG: Why would I find that unfair? I've tried to consistently show how I'm in favor of consumer advocacy and how the Cardinals have built a brand upon a history, and as part of the contract must live up to that. That's how it works.
Simple.10: OGDG - Last week I asked you if you thought the birds would field a competitive team next year. Did we get any “clarity†on that answer last week?
DG: I will say the tone and details of some of the comments Mozeliak made at the GM meetings -- coming out of the conversation with Contreras, coming out of the early conversations with teams on trades -- have shifted the tone somewhat. Add a big free agent? Not happening this year. But bailing, tanking, stripping the roster? Also, not in the plans, it seems. Took note of the number of people I heard who downplayed the Cardinals' eagerness to trade Ryan Helsley at the moment. That's telling, somewhat. Just as the Gibson decision was a sign of how they were going to cut salary as a rule. The Contreras move and Helsley info -- if either hold -- suggest a team selectively clearly space for youth and not willing to entirely walk away from contention to do so.
Heath: There's a lot of negativity from the fanbase online, but if YOU were a Cardinal fan, on a scale of 1-10 how would you rate your optimism regarding the overall direction of the franchise?
DG: I'm sorry I don't have a good answer for this. I've been thinking about it for about an hour now since first seeing your question, and I'm having a hard time moving into that mindset. I'm just being honest. The Cardinals have catching up to do as a modern franchise. We have only seen hires not action in that direction, so let's see some action. Tell us about the tech, tell us about the facilities, tell us details about the plan, and that will move the needle. As of right now, the Cardinals are appear to be just on the other side of the middle, and they've made the middle a home. So, is that the answer? As I thought about this, the more I sided with the fans should make that call, not me trying to look through that lens.
(Please see poll on this subject in chat window.)
Ken: This is the most optimistic I’ve been in a long time. Why all the negativity. We are all fans. I venture to say all the anger on this site will disappear sooner than we know! Change is coming soon
DG: I am skeptical. Unless a 162-0 is incoming.
And even then a brief October could ignite it all over again, right?
Amir: Tarik Skubal had a chance to learn from his failures for 1+ seasons as a starter before breaking out. Is there any indication the cardinals intend to give liberators a similar opportunity with starting? I'm not trying to compare Skubal to Liberatore as pitchers, but rather the opportunity afforded to him that the Cardinals openly want to give many young players entering this season. He never had a very long leash, and Mozeliak & Oli have publicly stated they believe he has the capability to start at this level
DG: This is a great question -- and it strikes right at the developing theme and (ahem) development theme of the offseason. Well done, Amir.
As of right now, the Cardinals have the five returning starters and veterans. McGreevy is the No. 6 based on his performance in the role to close the season. Liberatore is preparing this winter to be a starter because it's easier to shrink down into a relief workload during spring than to snap back to a starter workload if needed. That makes sense. There are Cardinals' decision-makers who see Liberatore's long-term future as a starter, and they can still see an immediate future as part of the closing equation in 2025 if they trade Helsley.
You're right that true to the nature of clearing spots for young players to get those innings, turning a rotation spot over to Liberatore and see where it goes makes a lot of sense.
A lot.
A lot a lot.
And it would be true to the theme of what the Cardinals are professing they'll do elsewhere. It would be consistent, and it might pay off. That said, right now, they see him in relief until a trade or trades shift the look of the rotation. But that's high-leverage relief. And I can somewhat understand that.
It's possible to see what the rotation looks like without Liberatore.
It's hard to see what the bullpen looks like without Liberatore.
Alex: Could you see Arenado being pieced with Helsley in a potential trade to unload payroll?
DG: I have not heard those names connected at all. Would not be surprised if a team tries -- and there are teams out there shopping for impact relief (Phillies) that also have budgets to splurge. We'll see.
Ed AuBuchon: Cardinals have had different starting points for the outfield for a few years now.
DG: They have indeed. It's a remarkable trend to go from a good four-decade run of having center field dominated by a only handful of players (from Flood to McGee to Edmonds), and now this.
You have to go back to 2009-2010 to find consecutive full seasons when the WAR leader from the outfield was the same player for the Cardinals, and that was Matt Holliday.
He didn't arrive in STL until July of 2009.
Here are the WAR leaders who played some outfield for the Cardinals in the years since, for fun:
2011 -- Lance Berkman
2012 -- Matt Holliday
2013 -- Allen Craig
2014 -- Matt Holliday
2015 -- Jason Heyward
2016 -- Stephen Piscotty
2017 -- Tommy Pham
2018 -- Harrison Bader
2019 -- Tommy Edman
2020 -- Tommy Edman
2021 -- Tyler O'Neill
2022 -- Tommy Edman
2023 -- Lars Nootbaar
2024 -- Brendan Donovan
What you see as you peruse that list is the switch from outfielders who built their WAR on offense to the ones who did it with defense.
Chris: Have you spoken to the young players from AAA to get their thoughts on the automatic strike zone? What do they like, not like, etc? It seems it could be a significant change for some types of pitchers.
DG: I have. A lot. They are concerned about the upper part of the strike zone, where they don't get calls and where some of them need to live to get the effectiveness of their curveballs and fastballs playing off each other. It's a concern for them and for player development.
Bryan C: Do you have a update on what the Cardinals maybe looking to do since the GM meetings are over?
DG: It hasn't changed in the past three, four days since the most recent article. And there will be another round of articles upcoming. Promise. This is going to be an unfolding offseason.
Bryan C: What kind of a return do you think the Cardinals will get when they trade Helsley at the winer meetings?
DG: Who says they will?
Millo Miller: Herrera and Pages are catching some grief over their ability to throw runners out stealing. But let's cut them some slack. The Cardinal pitchers are not the best at holding runners on and some are very slow to the plate. I know their is a pitch clock, but what ever happened to a pitcher incorporating the "slide step" to home? Do that just once and it gives the opposition something to think about.
DG: The pitchers are accomplices in the thefts, absolutely.
Mike: I'm not sure this is the best phrasing... but what was the Cardinals evaluation of Contreras when they signed him? What did they expect to get out of him? Of course, they said all the right things. We got our guy. He's the catcher we needed to replace Yadi. However, in his two years here they NEVER committed to him as a catcher. He catches for a month and isn't Yadi -- who is? -- and is then told he's going to play outfield. He balks, they reluctantly put him back in but Herrera still there. This year, Pages is anointed the catcher, seemingly...and now confirmed by saying Contreras going to 1B. Yes, injuries played a part... but his entire time here has been incredibly confusing.
DG: This is all fair, and it's something that both the Cardinals and Contreras have clearly wrestled with, and sometimes they've done so quite publicly. The effort that Contreras has put in to improve at catcher is remarkable. Spend one day at spring training and you'll see that in action, or spend some time talking to the pitchers about Contreras and it will be clear the work he did to be there for them, to respond to them during games. And so on and so on. Their use of him has just been so fits and starts. Yes, injuries are played a large part in that this year. Injuries play a large part in this discussion now. It seems like they all believed they could sign him and help him improve as a catcher in ways the Cubs could not -- and there were some real specifics that the Cardinals had in mind, and Contreras responded to -- but ever since he took those fly balls in left field, it sure seems like he's been caught between their statements and their actions, and that's a tough place to be for a player who wants the confidence of his team. That's one thing they owe him at first, if this is going to work ...
Ryan: I’ll save the Cards $100k on a new grad from Penn. No. It doesn’t work out if you strike out 40% of the time and hit 40 home runs. Especially when you’re a career .222 hitter. Now, if said player can hit .294 then we can have another discussion.
DG: Just for future reference, I graduated from Mizzou, not Penn, and I'm not using batting average to make my case. That .294 tells me nothing without the damage.
BL: Apologies if I've missed this in earlier parts of the chat, however; related to Contreras moving to 1B, I always thought given Herrera's lack of arm strength to control the running game made him more suitable to the switch there. Can you compare the 2's various skills behind they plate and how StL views them, and if this is more them seeing what IH's upside still is back there or them purely trying to keep Contreras more healthy? Apologies, not the easiest of questions to voice in text not conversation....
DG: This may be a case of where Contreras' bat fits at first base along with some of his fielding skills, that we'll see in action during spring training, as of right now. That's not so much the case with Herrera -- the bat has upside, but production, thunderous production is what's expected from 1B. Herrera is going to have to work on his throws. Arm strength is part of that. He's on a program in the Dominican right now to improve on that. Footwork is another. Accuracy is another. They want it to work at catcher for him because that's where his bat plays up.
Jacob K: Hi Derrick- thanks for the amazing content you and the Post Dispatch provide. Just joining so sorry if this has been asked but have the Cardinals described how this "reset" is not still sitting on the fence? It might be a different fence but to me it still seems like the rebuild version of their contending model the last few seasons.
DG: Thanks for the kind words. If it's not fence-sitting, then it's fence-leaning. It's still fence adjacent.
Aaron: I'm in the minority but I'm happy about the reset by Cardinal management. As I look back on the mistakes made by ownership and managment in the past, it wasn't that the payroll wasn't large enough but rather they made the foolish mistake of marginally increasing payroll at the expense of player development. We have the market and resources to where we should be in the top quartile in player development investment. To accomplish that, I don't think it would be as expensive as trying to be in the top quartile of MLB payroll. Agree or disagree?
DG: You can defend everything that you wrote, and all I would add is that you expand the definition of player development to player opportunity. The Cardinals grew impatient with some in-house players because they felt compelled to contend, contend, contend, contend, and that became something of treading water in quicksand only see some of those same players thrive elsewhere. And some of that had to do with the Cardinals' approach and atmosphere. It wasn't about talent evaluation. It was about talent manifest, and some of the players who thrived elsewhere were not going to thrive in the Cardinals' culture. Some just weren't given the chance.
Ed AuBuchon: Instead of where "the bat plays" maybe where "the best position is" for the player or a better player.
DG: I kind of like where the bat plays, but that's just me. And I'm a huge proponent of defense. It's just got to be in concert with something offensively, these days.
saytreykid: I hope the Cardinals look at all trades - even minor leaguers like Saggese, Prieto, Baker to add more pitching - more power pitching espeically. Pitching is harder to trade for and more of a risk to sign via free agency too.
DG: That is at least part of plan, if not with those exact names -- but those goals.
Joliet Dave: What do you post info on Facebook under name wise
DG: It's under my name and Bird Land, the original name of the baseball blog at StlToday. Which, I guess, if it still existed under that banner would have just celebrated its 20th anniversary. Go figure.
Walt: In his two season with the Cards when Contreras has caught his hitting has been outstanding when he DH his hitting was lacking. Catching OPS of .878 and .937 when DH OPS of.721 and .676. I'm skeptical his move to 1B will work the way the Cardinals invision.
DG: This past season, in 204 player appearances at night he hit .305/407/.524 -- a classic 3-4-5 hitter and All-Star type stuff -- and in 154 plate appearances during the day he hit .205/.344/.386. That's a difference between a .936 OPS at night and a .730 OPS during the day.
I don't think the Cardinals should only play him at night and at catcher because of those splits. Or sit him during day games, do you?
Millo Miller: Derrick, have you heard any rumbling of what the Cardinals are going to do to enhance the fan experience. For me it would be better lighting off the roof in the upper deck. Like to sit in the top row of the 360's. Great view, usually a breeze, and shade. But night games make it rough up there to keep score.
DG: I have not heard that specifically, but let's print it here and see if someone takes note. There will be more things at the ballpark. They started test-driving a few toward the end of the season -- you may have seen the crowd participation elements on the scoreboard, the entry for relievers, and that horn at two strikes, two outs. There are also some plans to improve the tech around the ballpark, yes, and then create areas for socializing during the game. Make those destination spots with a ballgame, if you will.
Is this a good spot for me to make my case for a win song -- one that actually gets the crowd involved at the end of the game? That would be a great addition to the Busch Stadium experience.
Something.
Anything
That is akin to Sinatra at Yankee Stadium or Newman at Dodger Stadium or whatever that song is at Wrigley.
Ken: "And even then a brief October could ignite it all over… " Derrick this team has been stale and dull for quite a while. Masyn Winn is just the start. This change in leadership is so overdue. The players will respond.
DG: Have asked about the team growing stale about five, six years ago now, this will be interesting to watch, especially as they acknowledge the ways they did become stagnant.
We'll get to see if they respond in real time.
Seems like a good spot to end the chat. Been going now here for almost six hours and for nearly 400 inches of copy. Plenty of stuff for you to wade through in the coming days.
And the Cardinals chat will return next Monday.
On this Memorial Day: Thank you to all the veterans, and please remember all those veterans we've lost. I am a better person for the veterans, like my grandfather, my uncle, my late colleague Rick Hummel, and others, who I've had in my life.
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