Once celebrated as the successor to former Cardinals highly acclaimed catcher and team cornerstone Yadier Molina, Willson Contreras now looks as if he’ll go down as the short-term bridge who filled the gap between the Molina and the club’s young tandem of homegrown catchers: Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages.
The club’s shift away from the three-time All-Star and former World Series champion Contreras, 32, and toward the duo of Herrera, 24, and Pages, 25, underscores the stated intentions voiced by chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. after the season — to focus the energy and resources on the development of the club’s current young core as well as the player development pipeline. Contreras is being pegged to take the position that had been held by Paul Goldschmidt, a 37-year-old free agent the Cardinals are not expected to re-sign.
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The position switch for Contreras also seems to signal a willingness to prioritize potential future success, even if it comes with growing pains, over the immediate success and the certainty that typically comes with an established veteran backstop.
Contreras’ more than 6,000 innings caught in the majors provided him a measure of experience that dwarfs that of Herrera (620 2/3 innings) and Pages (542 2/3 innings).
At the same time, the Cardinals apparently will attempt to maximize Contreras’ offensive impact by moving him to first base while also creating a runway for the potential shown by Herrera, the club’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2023, and Pages, a later bloomer still finding his ceiling.
What does it mean for this trio?
Contreras goes to the corner
When healthy last season, Contreras was the club’s most productive offensive player as evident by his .848 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) and a 136 OPS+. He led the club in both statistics.
Contreras batted .262 with a .380 on-base percentage and a .468 slugging percentage in a season interrupted by two separate injured list stints for broken bones (left forearm, right middle finger). Despite playing in just 84 games, Contreras belted 15 home runs and finished seven behind the team lead.
He endured a roller coaster first season with the club in 2023 that included a brief ham-handed benching, public questioning of his work with the pitching staff (including game planning and pitch calling) and mixed messaging about a potential shift to the outfield. The same season ended with from veteran pitcher and franchise icon Adam Wainwright.
Contreras spent the offseason transforming himself defensively. He looked markedly different from the start of spring training, and statistically he began the season as one of the top catchers in the majors.
At the time New York Mets slugger J.D. Martinez clubbed Contreras’ arm with a swing and fractured the catcher’s left forearm, Contreras had thrown out one-third of attempted base stealers and he’d registered the 10th-best strike rate of any catcher in the majors according to MLB Statcast pitch-framing data. He also ranked among the catching leaders in wins above replacement (WAR).
Contreras will go into 2025 having made just 11 appearances (four starts) at first base in his big-league career. If the move from behind the plate allows him to stay healthy and in the lineup on a regular basis next season, he could compile one of the best offensive seasons of his career based on the pace he was on in 2024.
Herrera’s bat can’t be ignored
Herrera’s first exposure to the majors came in 2022. An international free agent signed out of Panama in 2016, his major-league debut came at age 22 on a team that still included Molina. The consensus opinion from his introduction to the big leagues was that he had maturing to do and big strides to make in terms of his preparation.
In small glimpses with the big club in 2023, Herrera impressed with his progress in terms of preparation and work with the pitching staff. That, along with his performance in the minors, forced his way onto the opening-day roster in 2024 as Contreras’ primary backup.
Herrera continued to display progress in the mental side of the game working with the pitching staff last season. Contreras’ extended absences for injury afforded Herrera even more hands-on experience in the heat of big-league games.
Before 2024, he’d appeared behind the plate in just 24 games in the major leagues. He appeared behind the plate in 56 games (52 starts) last season.
Offensively, Herrera showed advanced ability at the plate throughout the minors. His prowess in the batter’s box has translated to the majors. In 96 games in the majors, Herrera has slashed .289/.365/.398.
Herrera went on the IL because of a lower back ailment in June, and at the time he also received an injection for pain in his throwing arm. Herrera initially went back to Triple-A when he came off the IL, though he returned to the majors in late August.
In his last 18 games (15 starts), he showed off a hot bat (.368 batting average) as well as an uptick in his slugging ability (.579 slugging percentage) highlighted by a game-winning home run against Cleveland at Busch Stadium on Sept. 22.
Herrera has shown the ability to hit all types of pitches. Last season he batted .310 with an expected slugging percentage of .433 against fastballs. He batted .269 with a .372 expected slugging percentage against breaking balls, and he batted .360 with an expected slugging percentage of .732 against off-speed pitches.
Of course, his struggles to control the running game were glaring in 2024. He threw out just 4 of 59 base stealers or 6.8% in a season when the NL average for catchers was 20.3%. The Cardinals were implementing adjustments to footwork and throwing mechanics to improve his throwing accuracy as well as a throwing program to build arm strength.
Pages’ growth worth watching
The Cardinals added Pages to their 40-man roster for the first time in November 2023. Pages, a sixth-round draft pick out of Florida Atlantic in 2019, made his major-league debut in April 2024. By the end of 2024, the rookie led the club in innings caught (542 2/3).
Defense had been Pages’ calling card early in his professional career. Following the 2022 minor-league season, Baseball America rated Pages the “Best Defensive Catcher†in the Cardinals’ farm system.
In 2021 at High-A, he batted .249. In 2022, he spent time at Double-A and Triple-A and batted .227 between the two levels.
Pages’ overall play, hitting included, took a step forward in 2023. He batted .267 with a .362 on-base percentage at Double-A that season. The offseason leading into 2023, he also revamped his setup behind the plate after working with New York Yankees veteran catcher and former Platinum Glove winner Jose Trevino.
Baseball America again rated Pages the top defensive catcher in the Cardinals’ farm system following the 2023 season.
Pages’ defense stood out in his first taste of the big leagues. He quickly earned the respect of the pitching staff, and he also . While he showed off the strongest throwing arm among the Cardinals catchers as far as average velocity, Pages’ caught stealing percentage of 18.7% also ranked below the NL average (20.3%).
The extended playing time in the majors last season also showed Pages might not yet have hit his full ceiling as a hitter.
Overall last season in the majors, he slashed .238/.281/.376 with seven home runs in 68 games. He mashed two more home runs than Herrera in 41 fewer plate appearances.
During a 45-game stretch in the middle of summer starting June 14, Pages slashed .270/.294/.426 with six home runs. For stretches, his offense outpaced what he’d shown in his best season in the minors despite a jump in multiple levels.
That progress and his work behind the plate earned Pages steady playing time late last season as the Cardinals attempted to assess the potential upside still present in his bat. More regular playing time in the majors should only help flush out that assessment.