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At first I assumed Friday afternoon’s surprising news at Busch Stadium could probably just be attributed to some really strong painkillers.

There was catcher Willson Contreras, who just 10 days ago had suffered a fractured left ulna when J.D. Martinez’s swing collided with his outstretched arm, bopping around the clubhouse with nothing but a thin white pad taped over his surgically repaired forearm.

No cast in sight.

Big smile on his face.

“I’m really happy with how the process is going and how well I’m recovering,” Contreras said. “The way I feel, I could say, it’s not going to be (until) the All-Star break. It could be earlier than that. I’m not going to say something that is going to get above the doctors’ opinion, but if you’re asking me how I’m feeling, I’m feeling great.”

And no, Contreras confirmed later, he was not talking crazy due to pain pills or some other tranquilizing agent.

He actually doesn’t take painkillers, he said. Never has. Doesn’t like they way they make him feel.

Then the catcher reached for his cellphone.

Contreras opened his photos and navigated to one that showed his arm — the inside of it.

Stretched open with forceps to show the snapped bone, Contreras traced over the clean and even break, which, if you’re going to have to break a bone, is the best way to do it.

Then he showed the metal plate that has been inserted to stabilize his arm.

Contreras got hurt on a Tuesday. He was operated on the next afternoon. His plaster cast was removed Saturday, he said, before his neighbors who hoped to sign it could get their chance.

“He’s not normal,” manager Oli Marmol said. “Very strong human.”

I know what you are thinking. Here comes another way-too-optimistic Cardinals injury update. Beware the spin zone. Reach for the nearest grain of salt. Scratch that. Grab a shaker of it instead.

Normally, I’d agree.

I’m almost always among the first to pump the brakes on happy talk related to sprains and strains and broken bones, especially ones in the hands and arms of men who have to hit high-velocity pitches with wooden clubs.

The Cardinals often are guilty of pumping unnecessary sunshine about injuries, getting fan’s hopes up only to be disappointed when reality strikes. We don’t have to dig into past seasons for examples. This season already has three.

Tommy Edman was supposed to be back and starting in center field by the time games started counting following his offseason wrist operation. He’s still out.

Keynan Middleton’s spring training forearm setback wasn’t supposed to be severe. He’s still missing from the bullpen.

Steven Matz wasn’t supposed to miss much time from the rotation. He’s still shut down from throwing and Matthew Liberatore has unfortunately been forced from the bullpen to the rotation to take Matz’s place indefinitely.

So, if you want to hear no good news about Contreras, I get it. But I wouldn’t be quick to lump this player in with the crowd. Catchers are tough by nature, but Contreras is one of the tougher ones. He’s on the Yadier Molina scale of being able to shake off minor bumps and bruises completely and rush back from significant injuries sooner than most could or would.

The initial timetable for Contreras’ absence was 6-8 weeks.

I actually think it’s more encouraging the Cardinals are not updating anything just yet.

“This is a process and we’ll continue to monitor it to see how quickly his return can be,” Marmol said. “We’re still at the beginning stages of that.”

Contreras said he has never broken a bone before, which is almost hard to believe considering the punishing nature of his craft. The Cardinals may need to protect him from himself as this progresses. Good luck with that.

Contreras said his lack of pain after the surgery to install the plate and screws has pleasantly surprised him. He’s already working with the medical team to find ways to keep his cardio in motion. He wants to track pitches as soon as cleared to do so in order to help his chances of picking up a .950 on-base plus slugging percentage where he left it. Even if he’s able to come back sooner than most figured, he still has weeks of waiting. That doesn’t mean not contributing, in his eyes.

“I can be present in every game,” Contreras said. “I need to find a way to stay present, let them know I’m here for everybody. If anybody needs something, they can come up to me and ask. That’s the best way I can do it.”

I don’t like leaning into happy injury talk, but I’ve learned you don’t bet against Contreras’ toughness.

If he says he may be back before the All-Star break, I’ll buy that potential.

If his teammates aren’t fired up to make sure there’s a postseason shot to play for when that time comes, they’re not paying much attention to an example being set by a player who has poured all of himself into his job since he got here.

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An architect behind the pitching staff that returned the Cardinals to October prominence and the pitching philosophy seeped into the roots of player development and one of his earliest pupils will be reunited this fall in ������Ƶ, with custom-tailored red jackets waiting.

Longtime pitching coach Dave Duncan and former Cardinals ace Matt Morris will be inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame along with 1940s great Whitey Kurowski this September. Morris, who won 101 games for the Cardinals, was selected by the fans for the Class of 2024. Kurowski, a three-time World Series champ during the Swifties era, was selected by the Red Ribbon Committee. And Duncan, one of the most highly regarded pitching coaches in major-league history, was chosen for the honor directly by Cardinals ownership.

The inductees were announced Friday night.

The ceremony will be Sept. 7 at Ballpark Village.

Duncan, 78, spent 16 years as the Cardinals’ pitching coach, and he’s the fourth-longest tenured coach in club history. During his time with the team, manager Tony La Russa as well as other members of club leadership credited him with reviving pitchers’ careers, maximizing talents with his meticulous preparation, and building upon while feeding into the Cardinals’ reputation for strong defensive play. He kept his pitchers grounded. Quite literally.

Duncan is “the perfect pitching coach,” La Russa often said. He added: “There isn’t any pitching problem you can present that he can’t handle. I don’t think every coach can say that.”

“Papa Dunc,” as some of his pitchers called him, came to ������Ƶ with La Russa, and he spent most of his 32 years as pitching coach beside La Russa with the White Sox, Athletics, and Cardinals. During Duncan’s time leading the pitching staff, the Cardinals had the third-lowest ERA (4.08) and also the third-lowest ERA for starters (4.16), all while overlapping with Atlanta’s Hall of Fame-bound trio of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine, and not boasting the same budget for pitching as other NL rivals. A former executive with the Cardinals once said that Duncan “saved the team millions” by turning overlooked, undervalued pitchers into All-Stars.

Two of those pitchers, Jeff Suppan and Kyle Lohse, each signed a $40-million contract after a year or so with Duncan as manager and Yadier Molina at catcher. Suppan found his with the Brewers, and Lohse signed his with the Cardinals before then leaving for a $33-million contract with the Brewers.

Duncan traveled with two large trunks that housed his handwritten database on hitters. He would color-code the results of at-bats and link them to specific pitches so that the Cardinals could use that for scouting reports and defensive positioning. Former catcher and manager Mike Matheny referred to the trunks once as “The Holy Grail.” They were early analytics. Duncan preached pitching to contact, getting the defensive involved, and pitching low in the zone. One spring training, on a large dry-erase board in his office, Duncan tracked the number of outs and the number of extra-base hits based on balls on the ground or in the air.

He was attempting to illustrate to Brad Penny (and anyone else watching) how damage happened in the air and there were outs to get on the ground.

Duncan once asked Joel Pineiro to just give him a spring training start, just one spring training game where all he threw was a one-seam sinker. That outing revived Pineiro’s career. Even if it sometimes led to clashes with colleagues, Duncan vigorously defended his preferred approach even as the Cardinals sought to change how they developed pitching and the game began to chase high velocity, four-seam fastballs, and the modern power-spin game.

“In my opinion, Duncan is the best pitching coach in the business,” a rival NL executive once told the late Joe Strauss. “You make guys better by finding a key to their success. I don’t know anyone who is better than he is at finding and turning that key.”

With Duncan as pitching coach, the Cardinals had the lowest ERA in the majors in 2004 and 2005. In 2005, Chris Carpenter became the second Cardinal ever to win the Cy Young Award. The Cardinals reached the playoffs in nine of Duncan’s 16 seasons, won three NL pennants, and two World Series championships. When asked once where he would consider managing, La Russa said wherever Duncan was coaching.

One of the winningest pitchers not yet honored in the club’s Hall of Fame, Morris went 101-62 with the Cardinals and had a 3.61 ERA over eight seasons and 237 appearances. His win total ranks 11th in club history, and he struck out 986, the sixth-most in Cardinals history. In 2001, the first of his two All-Star seasons, Morris emerged as the leader of the rotation as it and the team mourned the sudden death of Darryl Kile. That summer, Morris, the Cardinals’ lone All-Star, went 22-8 with a 3.16 ERA. He finished third in the Cy Young Award voting behind Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, and Morris received votes for the MVP Award.

After his debut in 1997, Morris was a key starter for the postseason revival on his way to the third-most postseason starts in Cardinals history. He pitched in the postseason in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2004, and 2005.

The Cardinals’ first-round pick – and 12th overall – in the 1995 draft, he joins Ted Simmons as the only two first-rounders who are also Cardinals Hall of Famers.

Morris will turn 50 just before his induction.

The right-hander retired after the 2008 season he spent with Pittsburgh.

Duncan left the Cardinals after the 2011 championship season in order to spend more time with his wife, Jeanine, as she battled brain cancer. Jeanine died in 2013. Six years later, their son, former Cardinals outfielder and ������Ƶ radio personality Chris Duncan, also died of brain cancer in 2019.

Third baseman Kurowski played his entire career with the Cardinals, hitting .286 with a .821 OPS and a .455 slugging percentage in 916 games. He appeared in four World Series, helping the Cardinals to win three of them. His ninth-inning, two-run homer on Oct. 5, 1942, was the title-clincher in Game 5 against the Yankees. Four years later, in a World Series against the Red Sox, he hit .296, scored five runs, and had a dazzling play on an attempted sacrifice bunt in the final inning of Game 7 to help secure that championship.

From 1943 to 1947, Kurowski was selected for five consecutive All-Star games.

Morris, Kurowski, and Duncan will be the 11th class inducted into the Cardinals Hall of Fame and bring the total number of people honored at the Ballpark Village museum to 55.

The author of this article was a member of the committee that elected Kurowski.

Morris finished ahead of three other candidates during the online fan balloting that happened earlier this year. The right-hander was on the ballot with former teammate Edgar Renteria as well as George Hendrick and lefty Steve Carlton, a member of the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Players who have retired within the past 40 years are eligible for the fan ballot. Players must be retired three years before being eligible for the Cardinals Hall of Fame.

Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina will first be eligible to appear on the fan ballot for the 2026 class. Adam Wainwright will be eligible for 2027 induction.

������Ƶ Cardinals

Cardinals return home from roller-coaster road trip to prove whether they're going somewhere

• Derrick Goold

A regular-season series between the Cardinals and Red Sox should feel like a potential World Series preview.

Does anyone feel that way about these two editions of the Cardinals and Red Sox?

Me either.

So let’s talk about the future instead.

Two proud and accomplished organizations known for postseason success are, for the first time in major league history, coming off seasons in which they both finished last in their divisions. The Cardinals are still there. The Red Sox, who on Thursday were wrapping up a series in Tampa Bay, are hovering around .500.

The future, the Cardinals, the Red Sox and the Rays could have a common connection: Chaim Bloom.

The former chief baseball officer in Boston has since January been quietly working as an adviser for the Cardinals front office. Bloom’s been mostly in the background, but don’t let his behind-the-scenes role fool you about what he’s doing now and what he could be doing down the road.

Hints of his fingerprints were on Cardinals’ offseason moves connected to players he had a sense of from his time in Boston and Tampa Bay. He made the rounds at spring training. He took in the Cardinals home opener at Busch Stadium. He’s familiarizing himself with the Cardinals at all levels, from the top to the bottom rungs of the farm system.

It doesn’t seem like the kind of onboarding process enacted for someone ownership expects to be a short-timer.

The Cardinals have not attempted to hide the fact they are preparing for a front-office transition in the foreseeable future. Longtime President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak, who recently seemed to suggest he could be the one moving on sooner than expected if this season doesn’t get salvaged, has suggested publicly that he will be ready to pass the baton of top baseball operations duties to someone else after his current contract expires following the 2025 season. Mozeliak indicated before this season began that evaluations of internal options are underway, and he made it clear Bloom is indeed one of those options.

And let’s not forget how Cardinals Chairman Bill Dewitt Jr., heaped praise upon Bloom at Cardinals Winter Warm-Up following Bloom’s hire.

“It’s interesting, because when I saw that Chaim had been let go in Boston, and Mo saw it as well, I immediately thought we can probably use someone like that, who has been with the small market, big market, smart guy,” DeWitt said back in January. “To kind of help see what’s going on with our organization. Interestingly, Mo thought the same thing. He called me like two days later, and I said, ‘That’s interesting, because I had the same thought.’ We are on the same page there, which is great. I think he can be very helpful. Our team has been together a long time, and you never know what else is out there that maybe our guys have not been in touch with. The world changes. It’s helpful to get the perspective of someone who has been with different organizations.”

No one can debate how greatly Bloom navigated small-payroll challenges to create success with the Rays. He was just 36 when Boston, suffering from a bloated payroll, poached from within their division an architect who overachieved in Tampa by beating bigger-spending competition in the margins. Bloom’s Rays smartly saw value other teams missed, made creative and winning trades, and correctly projected internal and external talent. Cardinals fans will say, with enthusiasm, to sign them up for that, right?

Bloom’s Boston flop is a trickier topic.

He arrived there after the 2019 season preaching a sustained-success plan that sounded appealing to a Red Sox ownership group that wanted a steadier pace and smaller payroll investment. It didn’t work. Some blame Bloom. Some blame ownership.

Boston fans turned on Bloom as roster stars departed, replaced by cost-conscious contracts and a blend of young and old players who shared a common crossover: affordability. Rosters churned more than usual, causing fans to lose connections to players. The Red Sox finished last in two of Bloom’s full seasons, and they were in last place again when he was fired in September 2023. Fenway Park attendance suffered as payrolls dropped but ticket prices didn’t. For many in Boston (and elsewhere), Bloom’s name will forever be attached to trading superstar Mookie Betts and getting little in return in the deal. And while that Betts trade was the headliner, it wasn’t the only trade that underwhelmed.

Now, the other side of the argument.

Bloom was hired by Boston to cut costs and improve a farm system, so why crush him for doing what he was hired to do there? Despite a cost-cutting mandate, he helped the 2021 team win 92 games, finish second in a brutal division and reach the American League Championship Series — before that team was dismantled. He was told to trade Betts, salary-dump style, which cut into the return. He is credited even by his critics for vastly improving Boston’s player development, research department and farm system. Baseball America ranked Boston’s farm system No. 5 shortly before he was fired. Bloom can fairly get some of the credit for Boston’s improved pitching.

Don’t forget, Bloom became the third baseball operations boss in Boston to last less than four years, and that organization has since publicly announced an audit of its baseball operations department by an outside consulting firm. Add it all up and there’s a good body of evidence that says Bloom may not have been what was wrong with the Red Sox. Even if, like me, you think he should have handed in his letter of resignation the day he was told to pull the trigger on a trade of Betts.

As the Cardinals try to get back on track to lead the National League Central while foreshadowing a front-office transition and the Red Sox seek to find success without breaking their bank every season, a regular-season series that should feel a lot bigger than it is arrives without much present-day suspense. Two iconic teams are searching.

If Bloom is destined to be part of the effort that gets the Cardinals back to the World Series before the Red Sox, one thing is certain: His supporters will dismiss his flop in Boston. His critics will cling to it. The truth is almost always somewhere in the middle.

Another truth: In terms of front-office pressure felt to produce winning results that can be measured in the standings, ������Ƶ is a lot more like Boston than Tampa Bay.

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• Derrick Goold

The Cardinals begin a pivotal homestand Friday with the first of three against the Red Sox. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m.

������Ƶ is 6-11 at home and 3-11 vs. winning teams, and the coming nine games at Busch bring numerous chances to either prove those numbers wrong or reinforce them.

After Boston, which is. 500 exactly, Baltimore and the Cubs visit.

On Friday, right-hander Kyle Gibson (2-2, 3.67) will take the mound for the Cardinals.

Gibson has a 2.10 ERA over his last five starts, four of which were quality.

In his last outing, at Milwaukee, Gibson permitted just four hard-hit balls, tying a season-best.

The Red Sox will counter with right-hander Brayan Bello (4-1, 3.13), who's pitching on his 25th birthday.

Bello has made one start since he returned from the injured list with lat tightness.

In six total starts this season, he's permitted more than two runs just once and hasn't allowed more than six hits.

His changeup is rated as one of the better ones in the league, while his other three pitches rate below average.

Bello gets groundballs at an elite rate, ranking third in baseball last season.

Former Cardinal Tyler O'Neill bats fifth and plays left field Friday for Boston. He has 10 homers so far, tied for eighth in baseball and more than he had in all but two of his previous seasons.

Boston leads baseball with a 2.79 ERA. Its starters rank first in ERA, led by Collinsville's Tanner Houck, who's not scheduled to pitch in this series.

Kutter Crawford, who will take the hill Saturday, is just behind Houck and among MLB's top starters early on by ERA. All three starters scheduled to pitch this weekend for Boston have sub-3.50 ERAs.

The Cardinals are 18-25, last in the NL Central and eight games out of first.

������Ƶ most recently took two of three in Anaheim for their first series win in more than two weeks.

The Red Sox are 22-22, good for fourth in the AL East. They're coming off losing three of four to the Rays in their previous series. The Red Sox have lost three of their last four series.

The last eight games between the two teams have been played at Fenway Park. ������Ƶ is 12-10 overall in regular-season play vs. Boston.

Lineups

CARDINALS

1. Brendan Donovan, LF

2. Lars Nootbaar, RF

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Nolan Arenado, 3B

5. Alec Burleson, DH

6. Iván Herrera, C

7. Nolan Gorman, 2B

8. Masyn Winn, SS

9. Michael Siani, CF

P: Kyle Gibson, RHP

RED SOX

1. Jarren Duran, CF

2. Wilyer Abreu, RF

3. Connor Wong, C

4. Rafael Devers, 3B

5. Tyler O'Neill, LF

6. Dominic Smith, 1B

7. Garrett Cooper, DH

8. Vaughn Grissom, 2B

9. David Hamilton, SS

P: Brayan Bello, RHP

Injury report

Keynan Middleton (forearm strain): Began his rehab assignment with six pitches and a walk before a rainstorm interrupted his inning. Right-hander will have Wednesday off and then appear, as scheduled, Thursday. He will have several appearances for the Cardinals' minor-league affiliate before returning to the majors, and one of the milestones the team would like him to complete is appearing on back-to-back days without difficult. Middleton has been on the 15-day IL with a forearm flexor strain since the start of the season. Updated May 14

Willson Contreras (broken forearm): Contreras had surgery to put a plate in his forearm and aid the healing of a fractured ulna bone. The injury happened May 7 when Mets designated hitter J. D. Martinez took a swing and his bat dropped down and hard into Contreras’ forearm. Contreras is expected to miss at least 10 weeks as the bone heals and he rebuilds arm strength. Updated May 13

Giovanny Gallegos (right shoulder impingement): Gallegos threw a bullen session Friday. The righty went on the the 15-day injured list May 6, a day after manager Oliver Marmol said he "doesn't look right." He has been ineffective this season and his fastball velocity has dropped into the low-90s. Updated May 17

Packy Naughton (flexor tendon surgery): Lefty began his rehab assignment officially Tuesday with an assignment to the Cardinals' Florida Complex League team. He will advance through the minors on his way toward Class AAA Memphis with these games mimicking a spring training schedule. Updated May 14

Steven Matz (lower back stiffness): The lefty went on the 15-day injured list on May 3 with a lower back injury. Matz's bullpen session planned for Monday was scratched due to lingering discomfort Matz felt after playing catch. He received an anti-inflammatory shot on Monday and will not be cleared to throw for at least another seven days. Matz began experiencing soreness following a start, and during his start April 30 he had a sag in velocity and effectiveness. Updated May 13

Tommy Edman (wrist surgery): On the 10-day IL, Edman started flip/soft toss Monday and has continued to hit from both sides of the plate without limitations or the setbacks he experienced during spring training. Edman is building up strength. His hitting progression will be per usual (coach pitch, then a pitching machine) as tolerated. On May 6, he was moved to the 60-day IL. Updated May 13

Riley O'Brien (flexor tendon): Placed on the 15-day injured list on March 31 retroactive to March 29, O'Brien's right arm tightened up after his opening day appearance. The initial diagnosis is strain of the flexor tendon; scans showed no structural damage. He began his throwing progression April 23. On May 10, he was transferred to the 60-day IL. Updated May 10

Drew Rom (biceps tendinitis): He is likely to have shoulder surgery in the near future after going to Texas for a consultation with a specialist. The lefty had his rehab an injury that took place late in spring training stalled in recent weeks by persisting discomfort and weakness. Rom was added to the 60-day injured list on April 30, suggesting the club expects an extended absence. Updated May 1

������Ƶ Cardinals

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Another development, another jab to some Cardinals fans from broadcast moves out of their control.

The latest smack will come Sunday, when the telecast of the team’s game at home against the Boston Red Sox has been pulled from Bally Sports Midwest by Major League Baseball and moved to the Roku streaming service, on which it will be exclusively shown. Unlike some other MLB streamers, Roku is available for free and will be available to anyone who can access a website — — so that should quell the angst of many.

But fallout from that move is that it will cause a big inconvenience to some fans planning to attend the game — the starting time has been changed from 1:15 p.m. to 12:05 p.m.

It’s only an hour-and-10-minute difference, which might not be that big a deal if the switch was from 3:15 to 2:05 p.m. But with this being much earlier in the day, it could be problematic for people who were planning to take in the ballgame after going to church or having Sunday brunch.

While it is true that the Battlehawks have a home game at the even more inconvenient-for-some starting time of 11 a.m. Sunday, that is a byproduct of the United Football League coming together only a few months before the season began. That led to the schedule having to be crafted around stadium availability and fitting games into television lineups in which many of the most desirable slots already had been filled.

That certainly is not the case with MLB. The Roku deal was not announced until Monday, and although the time change had quietly been made a few days earlier, that did not come into full light until the TV plan for the game surfaced. So instead of delaying the start of the package for a week or two, MLB immediate implemented it ... leading to short notice for fans planning to attend.

This follows the fan-unfriendly huge distribution mess Bally Sports Midwest, the Cardinals’ local telecaster, has been experiencing for years. Two weeks ago, Xfinity, a division of the Comcast Corp., dropped Diamond Sports Group’s regional sports networks — including BSM — in a financial squabble in which each side blames the other. Impacted by that are some of the club’s fans in outlying areas, especially in Illinois.

Numerous other instances of MLB’s problems with getting its telecasts available to a much wider audience has been well documented, with the latest move coming this week in bankruptcy court where MLB expressed its displeasure with recent developments. All of this isn’t the Cardinals’ fault, as it is a byproduct of Diamond’s ongoing bankruptcy case in addition to MLB policies that include the uniform fiasco this season in which players’ names are small and hard to read.

But no matter who is to blame, it’s the fans who are impacted. The danger for the Cards and MLB is that its customers who find other things to do with their time for one or two summers might discover they don’t miss the cost and effort needed to support the business. The long-term impact could be profound.

Cards in prime time

Another time change for the Cardinals was announced Thursday, but in this instance it's is for a road game. However it undoubtedly will cause some difficulties for fans who had planned to attend, although at least there is more than two weeks’ notice.

The Redbirds' contest on June 2 in Philadelphia has been added to ESPN’s “Sunday Night Baseball” schedule and thus moves from an afternoon start to 6:05 p.m. (������Ƶ time). That will make it tough on those who are coming from a significant distance and had intended to be able to get home at a decent hour after attending a game that had been scheduled to begin five hours earlier.

It will be the Cards’ second consecutive appearance on “SNB,” as their home contest on May 26 against the Cubs already had been scheduled. It will be their third time in the package this season, after they were there on March 31 when they played the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

They were on just one Sunday night ESPN game last year.

Entering Friday's game with a record of 18-25 and just more than one-quarter of the season behind them, the Cardinals have reached the season's first major waypoint.

In just more than a month, half of the season will be in the rear view mirror.

A year after their first losing season since 2007, the team set a course for improvement this past offseason.

Some areas, like pitching and defense, have seen marginal gains.

Those gains have been offset by big offensive declines resulting in a team that, although it's one win better than it was at this point last year, faces a major red flag in its run differential.

Below is a by the numbers look at where the Cardinals stand after the first quarter of the season.

Record: One game better

The bottom line and most obvious comparison: The Cardinals have won one more game in their first 43 than they did last year, but that's still their second-worst start since 2000 and 11th-worst in the divisional era.

They've gotten to this point by taking a path quite different from last year.

Run differential: Far worse

Run differential is a hotly debated topic, as it's ultimately meaningless.

Though teams with negative differentials have made the playoffs, some see it as a .

standings even include an expected record for each team, which is based on run differential.

Last year's team, despite having one fewer win at this point, had a plus-six differential.

The 2024 Cardinals, at minus-50, have their worst differential through 43 games since 2007 and the team's third-worst at this point in the divisional era.

Only one Cardinals team with a negative run differential of minus-10 or more at this point has ever made the playoffs: the 1996 team, which was minus-52.

Thanks mostly to their anemic offense, this team has few blowout wins.

In games decided by four or more runs, they're 3-10.

Hitting: Far worse

Which brings us to the most obvious difference from last year, the plummeting offense.

The club's .225 batting average is tied for its worst at this point in the divisional era.

It's not quite as bad as it may look.

Batting averages are down across the league.

Only once has an MLB season ended with a worse overall league batting average than the current .239: 1968, when the league lowered the mound in response.

• The Cardinals' current on-base percentage (.305) is tied for third-worst in team history since 1969.
• The team's slugging percentage (.347) is seventh-worst in that time.
• Its 155 runs scored is the club's fifth-fewest since 1969.

Pitching: Better

Following offseason efforts to shore up the rotation, the team's ERA has improved very slightly, from 4.42 last year at this point to 4.39 this year.

The last time the team had an ERA of 4.39 or worse at this point and made the playoffs came in 2000.

Cardinals starters collectively rank 25th in baseball with a 4.72 ERA, an improvement of one post from last year's final stats.

They're covering a slightly higher percentage of the team's innings than last season, as well.

In relief, the team is markedly better, ranked 15th with a 3.99 ERA, eight spots better than last season's final tally and about half a run per game improved.

Defense: A bit better

After an offseason in which improving the defense was a focus, the Cardinals have done so, to some degree.

By rankings, the Redbirds rank solidly in the middle of the pack at 14th-best this season. Those rankings take into account fielding runs above average with a positional adjustment.

While the team's ranking isn't eye-popping, it is a solid improvement over last season, when the Cardinals finished as the 20th-best defensive team by those metrics.

Baseball Savant's leaderboard shows a similar improvement, ranking the Redbirds' defense 13th-best in baseball, improved from 19th last season.

Playoff odds: Dropping

Entering the season, most major projection services had the Cardinals and Cubs finishing atop the division with more teams close behind.

Now, with an eight-game deficit and 43 fewer games to play, things have gotten much more difficult.

Baseball Prospectus gave the Cardinals the best chance to win the NL Central (42.9%) just before the season began. After their poor start, ������Ƶ' odds to win the division , far behind the Cubs (53%) and Brewers (34%).

Fangraphs, which at the start gave the Redbirds the best chance to win the division at 35%, now has the Cardinals with just a to win it.

Attendance: Dropping

Through Wednesday's games, the Cardinals are averaging 2,829 fewer fans per game vs. the first 17 home games of last season.

That's the sixth-biggest drop in baseball in raw numbers. As a percentage, it's the eighth-biggest drop, at 7.1%.

The two least-attended non-pandemic night games in stadium history have come this season.

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