Entering Friday's game with a record of 18-25 and just more than one-quarter of the season behind them, the Cardinals have reached the season's first major waypoint.
In just more than a month, half of the season will be in the rear view mirror.
A year after their first losing season since 2007, the team set a course for improvement this past offseason.
Some areas, like pitching and defense, have seen marginal gains.
Those gains have been offset by big offensive declines resulting in a team that, although it's one win better than it was at this point last year, faces a major red flag in its run differential.
People are also reading…
Below is a by the numbers look at where the Cardinals stand after the first quarter of the season.
Record: One game better
The bottom line and most obvious comparison: The Cardinals have won one more game in their first 43 than they did last year, but that's still their second-worst start since 2000 and 11th-worst in the divisional era.
They've gotten to this point by taking a path quite different from last year.
Run differential: Far worse
Run differential is a hotly debated topic, as it's ultimately meaningless.
Though teams with negative differentials have made the playoffs, some see it as a .
standings even include an expected record for each team, which is based on run differential.
Last year's team, despite having one fewer win at this point, had a plus-six differential.
The 2024 Cardinals, at minus-50, have their worst differential through 43 games since 2007 and the team's third-worst at this point in the divisional era.
Only one Cardinals team with a negative run differential of minus-10 or more at this point has ever made the playoffs: the 1996 team, which was minus-52.
Thanks mostly to their anemic offense, this team has few blowout wins.
In games decided by four or more runs, they're 3-10.
Hitting: Far worse
Which brings us to the most obvious difference from last year, the plummeting offense.
The club's .225 batting average is tied for its worst at this point in the divisional era.
It's not quite as bad as it may look.
Batting averages are down across the league.
Only once has an MLB season ended with a worse overall league batting average than the current .239: 1968, when the league lowered the mound in response.
- The Cardinals' current on-base percentage (.305) is tied for third-worst in team history since 1969.
- The team's slugging percentage (.347) is seventh-worst in that time.
- Its 155 runs scored is the club's fifth-fewest since 1969.
Pitching: Better
Following offseason efforts to shore up the rotation, the team's ERA has improved very slightly, from 4.42 last year at this point to 4.39 this year.
The last time the team had an ERA of 4.39 or worse at this point and made the playoffs came in 2000.
Cardinals starters collectively rank 25th in baseball with a 4.72 ERA, an improvement of one post from last year's final stats.
They're covering a slightly higher percentage of the team's innings than last season, as well.
In relief, the team is markedly better, ranked 15th with a 3.99 ERA, eight spots better than last season's final tally and about half a run per game improved.
Defense: A bit better
After an offseason in which improving the defense was a focus, the Cardinals have done so, to some degree.
By rankings, the Redbirds rank solidly in the middle of the pack at 14th-best this season. Those rankings take into account fielding runs above average with a positional adjustment.
While the team's ranking isn't eye-popping, it is a solid improvement over last season, when the Cardinals finished as the 20th-best defensive team by those metrics.
Baseball Savant's leaderboard shows a similar improvement, ranking the Redbirds' defense 13th-best in baseball, improved from 19th last season.
Playoff odds: Dropping
Entering the season, most major projection services had the Cardinals and Cubs finishing atop the division with more teams close behind.
Now, with an eight-game deficit and 43 fewer games to play, things have gotten much more difficult.
Baseball Prospectus gave the Cardinals the best chance to win the NL Central (42.9%) just before the season began. After their poor start, ºüÀêÊÓƵ' odds to win the division , far behind the Cubs (53%) and Brewers (34%).
Fangraphs, which at the start gave the Redbirds the best chance to win the division at 35%, now has the Cardinals with just a to win it.
Attendance: Dropping
Through Wednesday's games, the Cardinals are averaging 2,829 fewer fans per game vs. the first 17 home games of last season.
That's the sixth-biggest drop in baseball in raw numbers. As a percentage, it's the eighth-biggest drop, at 7.1%.
The two least-attended non-pandemic night games in stadium history have come this season.