COLUMBIA, Mo. — Missouri will return to Southeastern Conference action against a team without much more to lose.
No. 19 Mizzou (5-1, 1-1 SEC) hosts Auburn (2-4, 0-3) at 11 a.m. Saturday on ESPN, facing a team that has had its fair share of struggles through the first half of the 2024 season.
The blue-and-orange Tigers have thumped Alabama A&M and New Mexico but lost all of their meaningful games, stacking up defeats to California, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Georgia.
That could be thawing the seat of second-year coach Hugh Freeze, but MU coach Eli Drinkwitz views his next opponent through a more threatening lens.
“Auburn is a very dangerous football team,” Drinkwitz said.
Drinkwitz, who was on Auburn’s coaching staff for its 2010 national championship season, is aligned with his peers in consistently building up his adversaries — but he was happy to deliver a bit of a backhanded compliment while pointing out Auburn’s fatal flaw this year.
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“You look at the statistics they have on both sides of the ball, there’s really only one glaring weakness that they’ve had — and it shows up in all their losses — which is turnovers,” he said.
The turnover portrait has not been pretty for Auburn. With 2.5 turnovers per game — that’s 1.5 interceptions per game plus an average of one fumble lost — Auburn has given the ball away the third-most of any school in the nation. Auburn and South Carolina are the only SEC schools averaging more than 1.5 turnovers per game.
As Drinkwitz pointed out, the turnovers have been particularly costly in Auburn’s losses — which is to say its games against power-conference opposition. Quarterback Payton Thorne threw four interceptions in the Tigers’ defeat against Cal and one against Oklahoma. Thorne also threw one pick in a loss to Arkansas, but backup Hank Brown chipped in with three interceptions of his own in that game.
Auburn managed to be turnover-free in its last outing, an Oct. 5 loss at Georgia but struggled to convert third downs reliably.
Thorne is one of nine SEC quarterbacks to have thrown for more than 1,000 passing yards so far this season season. He’s completed 59.7% of his passes with 1,238 yards, 10 touchdowns and six interceptions — tied with Louisiana State’s Garrett Nussmeier for the most picks in the conference.
Auburn has a veteran running back in Jarquez Hunter, who has posted at least 500 rushing yards and three touchdowns in four consecutive seasons. So far in 2024, Hunter has taken 78 carries for 528 yards and four total touchdowns.
That production isn’t necessarily eye-popping, but he has been dangerous as a ball-carrier. Per Pro Football Focus, Hunter has forced the second-most missed tackles of any SEC running back this season, with 30, and his 4.96 yards after contact are also second in the conference.
“He’s proven he’s a really, really good player with really good vision, really good quickness, really good speed,” Drinkwitz said. “We’re going to have to bring our feet with our tackling — we’re going to have to challenge ourselves to tackle better.”
Mizzou’s defense will likely see the most talented receiver it has faced so far this season in Auburn wideout KeAndre Lambert-Smith. He transferred to the Plains after four years at Penn State and has emerged as one of the SEC’s more dangerous deep threats.
Lambert-Smith’s 24 catches for 510 yards and six touchdowns put him fourth in the conference in receiving and tied for the lead in scoring through the air, but it’s his 21.3 yards per catch that is most notable.
“Really excels in the jump ball, excels in the back shoulder, which has been areas that we’ve struggled with at the DB position, so that’s a point of emphasis for us,” Drinkwitz said. “Obviously he’s a guy that the quarterback, Payton Thorne, really feels confident in throwing the trust throws to.”
That belies one of the most important matchups in Saturday’s game: Lambert-Smith against the Missouri cornerbacks. The Auburn wideout has performed quite well against man coverage. Lambert-Smith has been targeted 15 times in man coverage, according to PFF, which is the sixth-most of any SEC receiver. That has only led to eight catches — he’s dropped two passes in those situations — but half of those receptions have been for touchdowns.
Simply put, Lambert-Smith is a scorer when he’s working one on one against a defensive back.
To keep its cornerbacks out of adverse situations — particularly as Toriano Pride Jr. and Nicholas Deloach Jr. rotate at one corner spot — Missouri may lean on zone coverage more, which will require its secondary to remain disciplined in tracking Lambert-Smith.
He tends to catch the ball more often against zone coverage: All but four of his zone targets have been catches. But of those four incompletions, three were interceptions — a sign that there are chances for defensive backs to capitalize on Auburn forcing the ball to its best wide receiver.
“He’s got really good speed, he’s a deep-ball threat, he’s got really good hands,” Mizzou safety Joseph Charleston said of Lambert-Smith. “Knowing where he’s at on the field at all times and just playing within the scheme, I think doing that’ll help us play well against that offense and KeAndre.”
Within Auburn’s defense, edge rusher Keldric Faulk is prone to causing havoc. In just his second season of college football, he has five sacks and 25 quarterback pressures.