Now that they are officially eliminated from playoff contention, confirming what we knew long ago, the Cardinals after Saturday night have seven mostly meaningless games left before an identity check of an offseason begins.
An organization that prides itself on sustained success now has missed back-to-back playoffs and posted more misses (five) than makes (four) dating to 2016.
The only remaining suspense left for this season revolves around the Cardinals trying to dodge back-to-back losing records in consecutive full seasons for the first time since Stan Musial starred. Not at the edge of your seat? I don’t blame you.
The method or the message must change, and the level of apathy never-before witnessed in this century that’s disguised as empty seats at Busch Stadium suggests fans will send a message until they hear their concern is shared.
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Here are seven numbers the Cardinals are seven games away from addressing and investigating during what could become a fascinating offseason.
One: Longtime president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has one year left on his current contract as the organization’s primary baseball decision maker and public voice. Will that change?
The Cardinals already announced the retirement of longtime player development executive Gary Larocque despite one more year left on his contract. The news followed a continued slide in performance from his group. Mozeliak has been candid about his run nearing its end and has stated the need for a plan of succession.
Many have assumed former Rays and Red Sox executive Chaim Bloom, who has been advising the organization this season, is being groomed for an eventual takeover, but there has been no public plan revealed from chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. Any reassignment of roles, regardless of how it is messaged, would be bigger news than any of the down-ballot changes any searching team must consider, such as roster and coaching alterations.
Two: Ultimately lost seasons from 24-year-old Nolan Gorman and 22-year-old Jordan Walker should be near the top of the Cardinals’ problems to analyze. Gorman led the team in home runs a season ago. He and Walker were both first-round draft picks. Linear improvement is hard to achieve, but good young players should not fall off production cliffs. Injuries can’t be blamed here.
Three: Among position players, three young Cardinals have produced strong seasons despite lackluster team results. The Cardinals have an opportunity to present 22-year-old shortstop Masyn Winn, 25-year-old professional hitter Alec Burleson and 27-year-old Swiss Army knife Brendan Donovan as internally drafted and developed examples of emerging core pieces. If the Cardinals lean into youth, I think a growing number of fans would buy that play.
Four: The Cardinals have four likable veterans they could bring back. But should they? All of the veteran leadership didn’t produce a postseason appearance. Starting pitchers Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have contract options. Matt Carpenter, nearing the end of a one-year deal, says he wants to return. Paul Goldschmidt, who wants to keep playing, is on a path toward free agency. If a youth movement is the move, reunion tours can’t be.
Seven: The Cardinals rank seventh among MLB teams in average announced attendance per home game (35,761). It’s a spot many teams would love to secure, but it’s newsworthy here, and not in a good way. For the first time since Busch Stadium III opened in 2006, the Cardinals are not on pace to lead their own division in average announced home attendance. The Cubs are averaging an announced crowd of 36,010 per home game. Reminder: Announced crowds are based on tickets sold, not rears in seats. Those numbers have been much lower lately.
Eight: As in, center field. Who’s the priority at the position? Is it pleasant surprise Michael Siani, or coveted prospect Victor Scott II? The answer seems to have wavered this season. Clarity seems like a must moving forward.
97: Thanks to adjusted earned run average (ERA+) and adjusted on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS+), we can normalize ballpark factors and grade teams’ hitting and pitching production compared to league average (100). During two seasons with Dusty Blake as pitching coach, Cardinals pitchers have a 97 ERA+, which is 3 percentage points below league average in that span. During two seasons with Turner Ward as hitting coach, Cardinals hitters have a 97 OPS+, which is 3 percentage points below league average during that span.
The Cardinals have not been getting league-average production on the mound or at the plate during repeated misses of an expanded postseason. The pitching and hitting coaches are not doing the pitching and hitting, but they do eventually tend to get graded on player performance.