And it’s on to the offseason for Our National Pastime.
Cardinals president of baseball operations threw out the first ceremonial payroll slash by turning Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson loose –- signaling to the industry that the franchise are serious about saying clear of the playoff chase in 2025.
Meanwhile other teams began efforts to improve. The Atlanta Braves added starting pitcher Griffin Canning to their pile by sending itinerate slugger Jorge Soler to the Oakland A’s.
The fun has just begun.
Once again superagent Scott Boras will dictate much of the action, starting with the Juan Soto Sweepstakes. After badly overplaying his hand with his top free agents during the previous offseason, Boras should rebound nicely this time around by getting a massive Soto contract.
“It’s a lot of money that people are talking about,†Soto told reporters after the New York Yankees crumbled in the World Series. “We’re going to shake it out, what’s my value, where I’m going to be around and go from there.â€
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In the walk year of his contract, Soto built a .288/.419/.569 slash line. He hit 41 home runs and scored 128 runs,
For the right money, Soto would be glad to stay with the Yankees.
“I’m really happy with the city, with the team, how these guys do,†Soto said. “But at the end of the day, we’re going to look at every situation, every offer that we get, and then take a decision from that.â€
Ah, but will the Yankees go to the financial extremes necessary to make that happen? The New York Mets appear to be better positioned to invest, say, $700 million over the next 14 years in him.
(The $700 million over 14 years is the estimate served up by New York Post reporter Jon Heyman after he surveyed his sources.)
Then again, the Yankees should be a highly motivated organization after the World Series flop. We could see a lot of activity from that franchise, from free agency to trades to changes in the field staff.
Maybe the Yankees will find a way to keep Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton in the same lineup.
The Cardinals will stay clear of free agency, but they could become an offseason headliner if they go into full tank-and-rebuild mode while trying to use their precipitous loss in local TV revenue as cover. They could be headed that way after opting not to pick up their options on Lynn and Gibson.
Ryan Helsley and Sonny Gray would have notable trade value. Perhaps Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado would have some value too, if the Cardinals are willing to eat some contract dollars to get prospects.
Here is what folks are writing about the Hot Stove League:
Jim Bowden, The Athletic: “This year’s free-agent class will be headlined by Juan Soto . . . the top of the pool could feature four front-of-the-rotation pitchers, including Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and perhaps even Roki Sasaki, if the soon-to-be 23-year-old phenom makes it to free agency. In terms of position players, this class will have a pair of prominent power hitters in first baseman Pete Alonso and right fielder Anthony Santander and a couple of impact two-way corner infielders in first baseman Christian Walker and third baseman Alex Bregman . . . By all indications, (Soto is) poised to become the second-highest-paid player in baseball history, behind only Shohei Ohtani. He’s a generational talent who will hit free agency at only 26 and should be able to land a 15-year deal. Most executives believe he’ll end up somewhere between $550 million and $650 million, which will probably limit his market to both New York teams and possibly the Blue Jays. Other teams such as the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers and Nationals also could emerge for Soto . . . This will be the fifth consecutive year that Corbin Burnes finishes in the top eight in Cy Young Award voting. Burnes went 15-9 with 181 strikeouts and 1.096 WHIP in his first season in the American League after the Orioles traded for him in February. He’s pitched more than 190 innings three years in a row and is 60-36 with a 3.19 ERA over 199 games (138 starts) in his career. He will be — and should be — the most sought-after free-agent pitcher this offseason.â€
Jon Heyman, New York Post: “While the Yankees are the highest-revenue team in at least their league, the improving, crosstown Mets, with MLB’s wealthiest owner, Steve Cohen, who’s expected to go for Soto, and the well-run Dodgers, whose financial condition improved with the revenue-generating Ohtani deal, have the wherewithal, too. Big-market teams like the Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox are expected to check in, and word shockingly is two small-market teams already have. Some are selling Soto on being their franchise guy as compared to with the Yankees, where it’ll be Judge’s team foreseeably, or the Dodgers (Ohtani’s team). But there’s no belief this matters to Soto. The Yankees (and Mets) may hold a geographical advantage, and the Dodgers do wonder about that. But word is, Soto was ‘down the road’ on a potential San Diego deal in 2023 before beloved Padres owner Peter Seidler took ill and passed away. While the numbers on that possible Padres deal aren’t publicly known, the belief is it must have been huge — Seidler was determined to win and be ultra generous, and Soto is surely aware of those figures. So anything below that potential deal coming in free agency and after Soto’s monster season in New York (41 homers, .989 OPS) could be taken as an insult, according to a Soto confidant.â€
David Schoenfield, : “Alex Anthopoulos always strikes quickly once the offseason begins -- one of the reasons he's one of the best executives in the game -- and this deal comes while the Dodgers are still nursing their World Series-winning hangovers. The Braves had acquired Soler from the Giants last summer as a fill-in for the injured Ronald Acuna Jr., shoehorning him into right field with Marcell Ozuna locked into the DH role. Soler isn't really an outfielder any longer -- the Giants had played him only as a DH -- so it was pretty clear the Braves had to trade him. With that in mind and knowing Soler will make $16 million each of the next two seasons, getting anything back is fine and Canning could at least be a No. 5 starter. He gives the Braves another rotation option if free agent Max Fried signs elsewhere -- which is a strong possibility. Canning had a 5.19 ERA for the Angels, but he did make 31 starts. He allowed 31 home runs and doesn't generate a ton of swing-and-miss, but let's just say that the Braves, with all of their pitching success, are likely to get more out of him than the Angels did.”
R.J. Anderson, : “When Skip Schumaker parted ways with the Miami Marlins at season’s end, he solidified his position as the winter's top free-agent skipper. Nearly a month later, it seems increasingly possible that Schumaker won't find himself in a dugout on Opening Day 2025. In order for Schumaker to land a new gig, a new gig has to be made available to him. It just so happened that teams like the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays -- and other clubs who could've justified moving on from their current skippers -- decided to stand pat (the Mariners fired Scott Servais in August, but did not chain an interim tag to his replacement, Dan Wilson). That, in turn, left a limited amount of chairs available for the taking. Indeed, barring a late change, only three clubs will enter next season with new managers: the Marlins; the Cincinnati Reds, who already lured Terry Francona out of retirement; and the Chicago White Sox. Seeing as how Schumaker split from the Marlins, and how the Reds presumably had eyes only for Francona, a venerable legend in the industry, that left one plausible destination: the White Sox. You can understand if he wanted nothing to do with the team coming off the worst single season in modern Major League Baseball history.”
Matthew Trueblood, Baseball Prospectus: “The (White) Sox still have (Luis) Robert under contract for 2025, for $15 million. They can keep him all the way through 2027 for no more than $20 million per year. He was, six months ago, one of the prime-aged players with the most obvious surplus value in baseball. Now, it’s a question of whether he can recover sufficiently to ensure that the team even wants to exercise their option on him for 2026. He’s a massive X-factor, because if you’re feeling ungenerous about the White Sox’s organizational competence, you can make a pretty strong case that he’s due for a rebound. Adjusting and improving his wild approach was going to be difficult work, because it was partially his extremism in terms of swing rate that made him good, despite his flaws. Now, he’s chest-deep in his weaknesses, and he’ll have to fight his way back up out of them. It’s not as simple as reverting to his old approach, because that approach was fragile, and is now broken. Given his extraordinary talent, though, could better coaching help him find his way again? It sdeems eminently possible. The White Sox should know that they were a terrible outfit from top to bottom in 2024, and thus, they should approach their best hitter’s unraveling with a hopeful flavor of skepticism. Did he really spoil, or does it just stink all around him? Will better coaching and a less toxic overall team environment make it fairly easy for him to tap back into his talent? That much seems almost certain. That still leaves three key questions, though: Will the White Sox successfully detoxify their clubhouse and dugout over the winter? Even if they do, can they afford to spend a hefty share of a payroll they’re trying to slash waiting to find out how well Robert responds to it? Even if they can afford that, is it the best course, on balance? Or should they trade him for a return that might make their 2027-30 seasons more promising, even if it means deepening the darkness of their 2025-26 campaigns?â€
Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic: “The Red Sox are in dire need of more right-handed power. Signing (Tyler) O’Neill to a (qualifying offer) would bolster the offense, but also keep the door open down the road for prospects and other young outfielders in the system. Signing another free-agent outfielder like Teoscar Hernandez likely would require a multiyear deal and might further the logjam in the outfield. O’Neill made $5.85 million in his final year of arbitration this past year so the QO deal would be a significant raise, but he might be looking to capitalize on a solid year by seeking a longer deal.â€
MEGAPHONE
“I look at all these jobs and opportunities as a challenge, I don’t think there’s one managerial job that is easy. All these jobs come with their unique challenges and I’m excited about the challenges that are presented here with this group. I’ve been on teams that have had to work hard to overachieve, and that’s a mindset and mentality that I’m comfortable with. I’ve seen that work at even the highest levels.â€
Will Venable, on becoming manager of the historically bad Chicago White Sox.