It looks over.
Doesn’t have to be — and I would love to be proven wrong by a chance to cover a remarkable surge — but that’s how it looks.
It’s hard to see it any other way after the Cardinals, knowing what awaited them upon their return home for Friday’s series against the Dodgers, totally no-showed a series in Cincinnati that will go down as one of the most pathetic performances witnessed in a long while.
Staring down the barrel of seven consecutive series against legitimate postseason threats, the Cardinals played dead against the Reds. Didn’t pitch. Didn’t hit. Didn’t defend. Didn’t look like the team in the series that was fighting to keep fading postseason hopes alive.
They’re 17-21 since July and 5-9 since trade-deadline help arrived. They’ve played like sellers since they became buyers. On Thursday’s off-day — off from what? — they were 8½ games behind the resilient Brewers in the National League Central and behind six teams in the jostling for the NL’s three wild-card spots. Their chance of making the postseason, per FanGraphs math, is down to a projected 4.7%.
Like I said, it looks over, and that’s not all it looks like, is it?
It looks like that very bad run differential was indeed a tell. The Cardinals are a minus-63. That’s third-worst in the NL.
It looks like the “one bad season” talking point ownership and front office leaders used to distance themselves from last season’s last-place disaster works worse now than it did back then, and it didn’t work very well back then. Because now the Cardinals are sinking toward their fifth missed postseason in their past nine tries.
Forget for a moment the Cardinals not winning a single game in a National League Championship Series since 2014. The Cardinals have their division’s lowest regular-season winning percentage (.463) since the start of last season. They’re 131-152 since 2023.
It looks like many fans have checked out on this bunch, and I’m not just talking about social media angst, which reached an all-time high last season, before an uptick in apathy began. The Cardinals this season have fallen out of the National League’s top five in announced average attendance. They’re sixth, per Baseball Reference, with an average announced per-game attendance of 36,346. Not counting the crowd-restricted 2020 season, the Cardinals haven’t finished outside of the NL’s top five in this category since Busch Stadium III opened. Is it still a number most teams would love to have? Yep. But most teams aren’t the Cardinals.
It looks like the Cardinals are dangerously close to getting something close to nothing from the shared era of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Goldschmidt’s decline since his 2022 MVP season has been rapid, and the Cardinals would be intentionally valuing emotion over evidence if they prioritize his free-agent return after this season.
It looks like Arenado also must be viewed differently as his age-33 season ends. He’s slugged .430 in nearly 1,000 at-bats since his superb 2022 season. He’s been, at best, slightly above average offensively during a significant span. This can’t be ignored when future offenses are constructed.
It looks like the Cardinals have not one, not two but three young-ish hitters who must be fixed before it’s too late. Jordan Walker, 22, spent the bulk of his season at Class AAA Memphis, much of it searching for production. Nolan Gorman, 24, is striking out nearly 38% of the time while displaying a slide in power (.406 slugging percentage) that doesn’t justify all the whiffs. The power of Lars Nootbaar, 26, has declined for the second consecutive season, down now to a .370 slugging percentage, and it’s been made worse by an on-base percentage (.317) that is back to where he was as a rookie in 2021. Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson have been sensational surprises this season, but they need help from their similarly aged peers to feel somewhat optimistic about this offense moving forward.
It looks like the Cardinals are going to need severe rotation maintenance all over again. Sonny Gray arrived with an invitation to be this team’s ace, but after a strong start, his performance has since balked at the invitation. He’s back next season, per his contract, along with trade-deadline pickup Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas. There are contract options to consider with Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Andre Pallante, Zack Thompson, Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy should get to compete. Still, an ace is needed. This team still lacks one.
It looks like these should be nervous times for those who operate without protection from the front office’s Teflon shield. Cardinals and continuity no longer go together like birds and bats. The public thirst for churn will be strong if the Cardinals find no magic in their bats and arms against a parade of heavyweight opponents. In Ƶ lately, churn is limited to players, coaches and managers. Uniforms, not suits. Though, this looks bad enough, you have to wonder if even that could change.
It looks like the Cardinals are one domination by the Dodgers — or by the Brewers, Twins, Padres, Yankees or Mariners — away from being forced to spend what should be meaningful games this season trying to do what’s best for 2025. It’s the worst place for trade-deadline buyers to be. It’s the place the Cardinals once took pride in so rarely visiting.
It looks like the gradual but undeniable trend of Cardinals baseball delivering less is about to reach another regrettable milestone. Those who sounded alarms about declining expectations don’t look like team-bashing pessimists. They look correct.
It looks like what will soon become the most compelling story with this team is waiting to see what those in control of it are willing to stomach before standards that slipped are raised again.